The A, B, C to Rebuilding Gaza

By Dr Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

According to the Gaza reconstruction plan report from the temporary Arab Summit in Cairo, Gaza’s economy shrank by 83 per cent in 2024. Unemployment rose to 80%, and inflation reached 309.4 per cent in October 2024 due to severe supply shortages. On the humanitarian side, 91 per cent of Gaza’s population faces food insecurity, and this number is expected to rise to 1.95 million by April 2025. The healthcare system is collapsing, with 64 per cent of primary health centers out of service, and 25 per cent of the injured require long-term rehabilitation. Education is also in crisis, with 745,000 children out of school because schools were either destroyed or used as shelters. Over a million children need psychological and social support, and there are between 17,000 and 18,000 unaccompanied children, which makes child care even more difficult.

The damage in Gaza is divided into three categories: areas completely destroyed, which need the rubble cleared and infrastructure rebuilt from scratch; semi-destroyed areas, which need repairs to restore basic services; and lightly damaged areas, which require limited work to restore services and ensure ongoing reconstruction. The damage is assessed by comparing the current situation to how things were before the crisis, and the affected assets are classified into three levels: fully destroyed, partially damaged, and lightly damaged.

The reconstruction plan has two phases. The first phase, early recovery, will take 6 months and cost $3 billion. This phase includes clearing rubble, repairing main roads, providing 200,000 temporary housing units, and restoring 60,000 damaged homes. The second phase, which is the main reconstruction phase, will take 5 years and cost $50 billion. It is split into two parts: The first part, lasting 2 years at a cost of $20 billion, involves finishing the rubble removal, building 200,000 homes, repairing 20,000 acres of farmland, and setting up water desalination plants and sewage treatment facilities. The second part, lasting 2.5 years at a cost of $30 billion, involves building 200,000 more homes, developing ports, creating an industrial zone, and building a coastal road.

Housing has been the hardest-hit sector, with 15,000 homes completely destroyed. The plan aims to build 150,000 new homes and provide 100,000 temporary homes, costing $15 billion. About 30 per cent of Gaza’s farmland was also destroyed, requiring the rehabilitation of 10,000 hectares at a cost of $5.6 billion. The water and electricity sectors also need significant investment to keep providing essential services to the people. The total cost of reconstruction is estimated at $53 billion over 10 years. The funds for this will come from international donors, humanitarian organizations, and local investments. Around $4.5 billion will be for development projects, and $18 billion will go toward infrastructure.

For the reconstruction plan to succeed, it is important to get enough financial resources to fix the huge damage in Gaza. This will help restore normal life and improve the economic and social situation, leading to long-term sustainable development. To ensure the plan works, it is crucial to have different sources of funding. These could include the United Nations, international financial organizations, donor countries, investment funds, government agencies, development banks, and civil society groups.

An international trust fund will be set up to manage the funds efficiently, ensuring transparency and proper oversight. The Egyptian government will also hold a high-level conference in Cairo, in partnership with the Palestinian Authority and the United Nations, to gather the necessary support for the reconstruction plan. This conference will bring together donor countries, international and regional financial institutions, the Palestinian and international private sectors, and civil society organizations. It will be a key event to secure financial resources and suggest investment projects that can be implemented with the help of supporting organizations.

The writer is head of the Economics Department – University of Jordan – [email protected]

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Who is Going to Rebuild Gaza?

No official announcement was made following the Riyadh Summit, which was considered fraternal, friendly, and consultative rather than formal. The summit, held a few days ago, was attended by the Gulf states, along with Jordan and Egypt, in anticipation of the Cairo Summit scheduled for March 4. The Cairo Summit is expected to approve and announce a new Arab plan for rebuilding Gaza as an alternative to Trump’s plan. However, more importantly, the Arab plan presents a comprehensive political approach linking the Gaza issue to the establishment of a Palestinian state and a peaceful resolution in the region. This approach counters Israel’s new policies, which are based on political hegemony—not only in Palestine by eliminating the two-state solution but also by expanding Israel’s security boundaries to include parts of Syria and Lebanon and inciting the U.S. into a confrontation with Iran.

The Egyptian-Arab approach is still in its final stages of preparation. It takes into account a combination of financial, technical, political, and security aspects concerning Gaza. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa has proposed modifications to the plan originally put forward by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union, which estimated the cost of rebuilding Gaza at over $50 billion in a rapid and preliminary needs and damage assessment report (IRDNA). Instead, Mustafa proposed a more realistic and feasible plan costing no more than $20 billion, to be implemented in three phases. The Egyptians have incorporated this into their reconstruction plan, which includes dividing Gaza into three safe zones, using temporary housing (caravans) and tents, and developing a technical vision for redesigning the sector’s infrastructure through specialized Egyptian companies.

The Arab approach links the reconstruction plan to several key elements. The first is the technical, logistical, and financial aspect of rebuilding. The second is reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA) to counter Israeli claims of its incompetence, with reform measures covering political and security aspects. The third element concerns the administration of Gaza in the post-occupation phase. A significant development has occurred with the Palestinians agreeing on a temporary administrative committee responsible for technocratic affairs. Hamas has accepted this arrangement, and President Mahmoud Abbas has reluctantly agreed to it, as it implicitly means that the PA will not return to Gaza.

The most challenging aspect of the Arab plan lies in the security arrangements during the reconstruction phase. Arab states refuse to deploy security forces or enter Gaza without a clear vision for ending the Israeli occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. As Arab diplomats emphasize, what is needed is not just a roadmap for resolving the Palestinian issue, but rather an agreement on final-status issues and recognition of a Palestinian state—followed by a roadmap for implementation, not the other way around.

The most contentious issue in the Arab approach is Hamas’s weapons. Israel, along with the United States, will not accept Hamas retaining its weapons in Gaza. Israel has made it clear that it links the second phase of the process to this condition, and the U.S. has accepted this demand. On the other hand, the Arab side ties the issue of disarming non-state actors to the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have the exclusive right to possess weapons. The key question remains: Who would disarm Hamas? The only legitimate entity that could do so is a recognized Palestinian state, which remains the missing piece in U.S. policies that align with Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision.

The Arabs hope that this approach will establish a new framework for relations with the United States and offer alternative strategic options. They even believe it could persuade President Donald Trump to secure several achievements—perhaps even earning him a Nobel Peace Prize in the end.

This is undoubtedly a highly optimistic approach, but it represents a new Arab attempt to present a united position and alternative strategic options. However, the biggest challenge this vision overlooks lies in the details. As the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.” What kind of Palestinian state is actually possible under the current circumstances? What was previously proposed by Trump himself? Is there a single Palestinian—any Palestinian—who could accept a state comprising only 30% of the West Bank, without East Jerusalem, and without control over borders? How could Hamas and its supporters—or even the majority of Palestinian refugees—be convinced of such a proposal, even if there were Israeli and American acceptance of the new Arab approach?

Mohammad Abu Rumman is a columnist in The Jordan Times.

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Roadmap: Gaza Needs $53 Billion to be Rebuilt

Reconstruction and recovery needs in Gaza are estimated to require $53 billion, according to the Gaza & West Bank Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (IRDNA) released Tuesday. The report analyzes damages and losses as well as recovery and reconstruction needs across almost all sectors of the Palestinian economy based on data from October 2023-October 2024.

  • Rapid Damage and Needs Assessments follow a globally recognized methodology that has been applied in multiple contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction planning.
  • With on-ground access restrictions and the rapid pace at which the situation is evolving in Gaza, the IRDNA provides an interim estimate of the impacts and needs.
  • Damages to physical structures alone are estimated at about $30 billion.
    • Housing was by far the hardest hit sector, accounting for 53% of total damages, followed by commerce and industry at 20%.
    • Extensive damage to lifeline infrastructure such as health, water and transport is estimated at over 15% of the total damages.
  • Economic losses from reduced productivity, foregone revenues, and operating costs are estimated at $19 billion, with health, education and commerce bearing the biggest toll.
  • Some sectors face higher recovery needs than the value of the physical destruction sustained, such as the funding needed for the management of the between 41 to 47 million tons of rubble and debris.

Almost all sectors in Gaza have experienced a total halt in economic production. Prices in Gaza have soared over 300% in one year, with food prices alone up by 450%. Gaza’s economy is projected to have contracted by 83% in 2024, dropping its overall contribution to the economy to 3%, despite being home to 40% of the population in the Palestinian territories. The West Bank’s economy is also struggling and is projected to have shrunk by 16% in 2024.

The report, jointly produced by the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, puts forward a roadmap for sequencing recovery efforts along with their associated costs in the short and medium term. It underscores the importance of a closely coordinated multisectoral response involving all stakeholders. The report further notes that the speed, scale and scope of recovery and reconstruction will be shaped by factors such as governance arrangements, entry to and mobility within the Gaza Strip for people and goods, law and order, and safety and security.

Reliefweb

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Guterres: ‘Resumption of War Must be Avoided at All Costs’

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday called for avoiding the resumption of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, urging all parties to uphold the ceasefire agreement and engage in further negotiations.

“We must avoid at all costs the resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to an immense tragedy,” Guterres said.

He also called on Hamas to follow through with the scheduled release of hostages next Saturday.


Guterres emphasized the need for “both sides” to uphold the ceasefire and resume “serious negotiations in Doha for the second phase.”

The UN chief’s remarks came amid heightened concerns over the fragile truce, as international mediators work to secure lasting peace in the region.

A three-phase ceasefire has been in effect in Gaza since January 19, pausing Israel’s assault that has killed over 48,000 people and devastated the region.

In the first phase, lasting until early March, 33 Israeli hostages are set to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, with the sixth swap planned this week.

In November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over war crimes in Gaza.

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