A Middle East Powder Keg

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Like Dorian Grey in Oscar Wild’s novel, we hated the face of Arab political realism in the 20th century when we saw it, and hated it more in the 21st century when we stopped seeing it.

Without much ado, the current ongoing war, or perhaps more accurately wars, in the Middle East, started by opportunists for opportunistic goals that converged.  Hamas with its 7th October attacks knowing only too well that Israel has the most right-wing and racist government in its history, and must have known that the its retaliation would be most severe.

It stands the reason to think the more severe the better, because this is likely to involve what is called as the axis of resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and as a bonus Iran as well. But closer to home, Israel by making Gaza uninhabitable to the people is expected to cause an exodus towards Egypt thus bringing it into the conflict, and the inevitable thought of Israel moving into the West Bank, and the likely push out of the Palestinians towards Jordan will bring the country into the conflict as well.

For Israel, with its most extremist right wing and racist government, the attacks couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. The situation presented them with the opportunity of attempting to put what were merely theoretical ideas in their minds, into practical policies.  Of course the root of what became a policy, is the rejection of an independent Palestinian state and the death of the two-state solution, by starting with breaking the Hamas grip in Gaza and transforming the area into a buffer zone with possible rebuilding of colonies/settlements on the area.

This is while the Gazans can be completely dependent on the good will of Israel for their survival, however, if the Arabs want to rebuild Gaza then by all means, but let them this time protect their investments by keeping actively the peace, and if Egypt can be persuaded to voluntarily taken in some Gazan refugees all the better!

Of course all eyes are also on the West Bank. Here Israel’s aim, one would say, is to turn the area into a “bantustan” totally dependent on Israel,  with the trimmings of municipal power to the PNA to manage internal affairs while real control of the economic, political domains remain in Israel’s hands.  

The Palestinians here would also be dependent on the Israeli economy, and relations between the West Bank and Jordan would be only possible with Israeli consent.  If of course, Jordan would accept taking displaced Palestinians from the West Bank voluntarily, all the better as well.

Having said all that, where do we stand now after so much recent death and destruction? A total war? Whatever does that actually mean when Jordan has already its own war against drugs, Egypt and its problems with Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria between the hammer of Israel and the anvil of Iran, Iraq a soup for Americans, Iranian partisans and a non-descript government, Yemen teetering on the brink of losing the existential battle, while Iran obsessed with its nuclear programme. One would hazard a guess that total war means, the killing of Israeli civilians by Hezbollah.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France

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Yossi Hadar: ‘Netanyahu Lost The War to Hamas’

Israeli political analyst Yossi Hadar, in the Jewish Maariv newspaper, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the war to Hamas, and instead of signing a prisoner exchange deal with it, he is trying to drag Israel into a war of attrition that will keep him in power.

The analyst harshly criticized Netanyahu for trying to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Galant, describing it as a political move to preserve his position, ignoring the military failures in the Hamas attack of 7 October, 2023.

The writer began his article by referring to the operation attributed to Israel of blowing up the wireless devices in Lebanon and Syria, which resulted in the death of 32 Lebanese and the wounding of hundreds, according to the latest statistics.

“If the attribution of this operation to Israel is correct, it reveals another aspect of Israel’s enormous military capabilities, but at the same time it could bring us closer to a real war with Hezbollah, while the war in Gaza continues, the Houthis attacks on Israel, and Iranian threats continue, with operations growing in the West Bank and inside Israel,” he added.

The analyst accused Netanyahu of deliberately prolonging the war for political reasons, ignoring the serious security implications for Israel, and described him as the most failed prime minister in Israel, and that he “is leading an approach of political baseness and exhaustion and implementing a Machiavellian plot aimed at tightening control over the country by pushing the public to despair.”

Hadar stressed that Netanyahu’s escalation in the north is “the way Netanyahu seeks to maintain his rule, not in order to do something beneficial for the citizens of Israel, but only for his personal and political interests, just so he can continue to exhaust us.”

Political Maneuver

The writer then went on to assert that Netanyahu’s attempt to dismiss Galant is part of a political maneuver aimed at strengthening his power, rather than addressing the military failures that were evident in the 7 October attack, which puts Israel in a weak position in the face of the growing threats.

“All this does not prevent Netanyahu from hatching a plot to overthrow the defense minister at this critical moment for the security of the state, and in the midst of a war that could expand,” he said.

He explained Netanyahu’s move as a bid to replace his defense minister because of his opposition to the Haredi conscription law that the Orthodox parties insist on, in exchange for appointing the head of the Right-wing Israel Party, Gideon Sa’ar, because the latter will pass this law, referring to Sa’ar’s volatility, who was previously quoted as saying, “If you want Netanyahu as prime minister, don’t vote for me.”

Hadar also denied Netanyahu’s followers’ marketing of the reason for Galant’s dismissal as a “weak leftist,” saying that Galant himself offered, just four days after the 7 October attack, to attack Hezbollah as a preemptive move, but Netanyahu refused, in a state of panic over the events.

The writer recalled that Netanyahu is the one who divided Israel by leading “an attempted coup against the judicial system that he created before 7 October,” and he is the one who brought upon Israel “the catastrophe of 7 October,” and now he is dragging another catastrophe by dragging Israel into a war of attrition.

He said, “Instead of waging a short and intense war, he chose a dangerous and failed war of attrition that goes against all strategic logic, and dragged Israel into the worst state it has been since its founding, because what matters is only the logic of political survival,” according to Jordan24.

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Lebanon Will Never Break

Dyab Abou Jahjah is a leading Lebanese author, speaker and an activist who lives in the southern part of the country with an open website. This is a reprinted comment he made recently on Lebanon and the Lebanese people, their sorrow but also their love for life and defiance.

This is a somewhat of a personal post, so please indulge me. As a Lebanese, especially coming from South Lebanon, today and yesterday are painful days. There is no denying it. We feel sorrow, and there is no shame in that.

But if there’s one thing about our people, it’s that we don’t break easily. If you ask about us, you’ll understand. We are the children of Canaan, our roots intertwined through faiths that have shaped us—whether in the name of Jesus or Muhammad. That connection makes us one with our Palestinian brothers and sisters, who, like us, have endured so much, yet remain unbroken.

We’re a people who love life. We laugh, we sing, we create art. Some might say we’re a bit romantic, even soft at times. But all our enemies—especially those who’ve tried to occupy us—know how we fight when we have to. There’s a strength in us that comes out in the hardest of times, a resilience that refuses to bend.

Israel’s anger towards us is because we don’t just speak in support of Palestine—we act. Whether we’re part of the resistance or find other ways to contribute, we do what we can. Even in moments when there’s not much we can do, we at least raise our voices and stand by justice. For those of us from South Lebanon, our connection to Palestine runs deep.

It’s something we feel in our bones, a bond that nothing can break. We’ve drawn their wrath, not just because we’ve resisted, but because we’ve made an impact. And though it may bring consequences, we won’t stop. Our support for Palestine is something personal, something that feels right in every sense—as a duty to our kin, to our faiths, and to the shared humanity that binds us.

We don’t glorify war, nor do we seek it. We value life, every bit of it. But when the choice is between humiliation or standing tall, even if it means death, we’ll face it with dignity. And in doing so, we’ll ensure that whoever invades our little country will perish or live to regret. May God protect Lebanon and Palestine, and may the eyes of the cowards never sleep.

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Bibi-Gallant: Israeli Politics in Atrocious State

CROSSFIREARABIA – Former Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon lashed out at the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over the estranged relations between the two men despite Israel’s critical war in Gaza and north of the country.

Netanyahu is under pressure to sack Gallant but somehow he can’t bring himself to do so, fearing a political backlash from his own Likud party. Yet he is under constant pressure from the extreme rightwing like Itamar Ben-Gavir and Bezalel Smotrich who keep threatening to leaving his government and thus bring it down if the war doesn’t continue and Hamas is brought down which many believe is an impossible task.

Meanwhile the United States wants to keep Yoav Gallant who they believe he is more moderate than his prime minister. This emanates from his utterings that the Israel army must not state in the Philadelphia axis but need to withdraw to the back of the Gaza Strip.

Another bone of contention is the fact that Gallant does not widen Israel’s war into Lebanon before the issue of the dwindling hostages – put now at 100-or-so – is resolved. Netanyahu wants the exhausted Israeli army to switch directions and go into Lebanon and thus widen the war and keep it going.

This is something that is against the interests of the United States which believes that the war must be contained within the framework of Israel and Gaza rather then moving to other territories and is continually push for a political solution.

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First Mrs President!

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

June 28 of this year was not a good day for the leadership of the Democratic Party or their supporters in the US.

Across the board, they were disappointed and perplexed by the performance of incumbent (D) President Joe Biden, as he faced the more aggressive and outspoken (R) nominee Donald Trump, in their first TV debate, before empty chairs in the room, for the 2024 presidential elections.

The Trump camp and republican sympathizers, at the close of the debate, felt reassured that the gates to the White House, this time, were sliding more towards their direction!

As a matter of fact, for both sides, the results of the race, at that moment, were almost decided. It was simply a matter of time!

When asked about his options, President Biden kept saying that he was not going anywhere, and was looking for the next debate!

Not old movies!

As if watching one of those boring classical movies, where the end is so predictable, the American public and observers around the globe, were bracing themselves for the imperative sequence of this version of presidential race in similar disenchanted mood!

It took Joe Biden nearly a month, precisely on July 21 to, bravely, announce that he was withdrawing from the race to the benefit of his VP Kamala Harris.

The boring classical movie then suddenly took a new unexpected turn and the spectators started queuing again for new refreshments and popcorn!

Overnight, the morbid atmosphere within the ranks and file of the Democratic Party got energized; a reminiscent of a wounded eagle, which starts flapping its wings, after receiving a magic dose of injection, capable of waking up even a sleeping dinosaur!

Fundraising machines were set back in motion; volunteers started enlisting; chapters’ committees regrouped and the whole scene transformed into action, enthusiasm and optimism.

A dramatic shift that would surprise allies, rivals and neutrals alike! As for the republican rivals, represented by their notorious nominee, Donald Trump, the atmosphere took a gloomier turn as new polls started showing alarming percentages of approval and disapproval for one camp and the other!

The tie was dramatically shifting in favor of the new nominee of the Democrats, Mrs. Harris! The personality who remained, for four years, in the shade of Biden’s 50 years long legacy in politics.

Without much to talk about financial largesse or political experience, and coming from a mixed blend of immigrants to the US, Mrs. Harris today, is standing tall in face of Trump, the life-long tycoon of wealth and affluence.

A factor that will definitely add to the wrath and chagrin of Trump, who upon hearing the nomination of his substitute rival in the presidential race, in clear and typical insinuation to her ethnical origin, clumsily asked: “When did she become black”?

Well, Mr. ex-President, Trump, ready your staff next January to draft a descent congratulatory note to the first ever Mrs. 47th President of the US!

This opinion was especially written for Crossfire Arabia by Saleem Ayoub Quna who is a Jordanian author writing on local, regional and international affairs and has two books published. He has a BA in English Literature from Jordan University, a diploma from Paris and an MA from Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He also has working knowledge of French and German.

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