A Gaza War Reader

By Dr. Tariq Sami Khoury

Despite the Gaza truce announcement, the question everyone is asking: Did this war end in victory or defeat?

Did the Zionist entity achieve its strategic goals, or did the Palestinian resistance factions impose a new equation on the ground? The mass destruction and great human losses open the way for a deeper analysis of the situation from multiple angles.

Zionist entity…Goals successes or victory illusions?

Israel launched its aggression on Gaza with unprecedented brutality, resulting in the near-total destruction of the Strip’s infrastructure, and the deaths of more than 250,000 people between those killed and wounded with the displacement of hundreds of thousands of residents.

Also the Israeli aggression extended to southern Lebanon and Syria, whilst targeting Yemen and Iran in clear attempts to expand the scope of the confrontation.

But did the Zionist entity achieve its goals?

1) Eliminating the resistance: Despite all attempts at genocide and continuous bombing, the Israeli army was unable to end the resistance or dismantle its infrastructure. The resistance proved its ability to continue to confront, and to carry out qualitative military operations till the last minute.

2) Recovering Its prisoners: Israel did not succeed to recover all its prisoners. In the end it was forced to enter into negotiations with the resistance under their own terms, which showed Israel was unable to impose its will by military force alone.

3) No deterrence: Instead of imposing a new equation to deter the resistance, Israel faced continuous missile strikes that reached deep into its territories and imposed a new and unprecedented reality on the Israeli internal front and unbearable political and security pressure on the Zionist leadership.

Legendary  Palestinian resistance…

Despite the Israel ferocity and the intense destruction, the Palestinian resistance emerged strong and cohesive. The battle it fought was not only for defense, but to establish a new equation in the conflict, as it was able to:

1) Survive despite the bombardment: Israel was unable to break the resistance will or push its fighters to surrender and remained able to respond and maneuver till the last moment, which shows the failure of the Zionist plan to crush it.

2) Imposing negotiating equations: The resistance was able to impose itself as a key party in any future solution, and succeeded in confirming that the prisoners are not just a pressure card, but a negotiating element that changes the equation.

3) Maintaining morale: Despite Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe, the Palestinian people came out to celebrate the truce, in scenes that reflect their steadfastness and ability to overcome hardships. That is a psychological defeat for the Zionist entity.

Regional and international dimension… Exhaustion or victory?

Israel expanded the scope of its aggression to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and even Iran to attempt to weaken any future threats. But this did not lead to decisive results. Rather it opened up several fronts without achieving any strategic gains.

1) Northern front (Lebanon and Syria): Despite its continuous bombing, Israel was not able to stop the force of the axis of resistance, but faced more threats leading to the exhaustion of its forces.

2) Yemeni front: The air strikes on the country failed to stop Yemen from participating in the conflict equation by targeting the ships in the Red Sea going to the Israeli Port of Eilat, and which added a new strategic dimension.

3) Iranian Front: The Zionist strikes did not deter Iran or stop its support for the axis of resistance, but strengthened its position whilst prompting it to escalate its support for the Palestinian resistance.

Truce.. Rest bite and an opportunity?

With the ceasefire announcement, it can be said the resistance emerged victorious through its ability to withstand and maintain its position to influence the future. In contrast, while the Zionist entity may have achieved some of its field goals, it failed to draw a decisive victory and end of the resistance.

Conclusion.. Victory and defeat

The battle was not equal in terms of military strength, but victory is not only measured by the ability to destroy; it is by steadfastness and ability to continue. Israel did not achieve a decisive victory, but fought a long war of attrition, while the Palestinian resistance emerged more solid and able to impose a new reality in the regional equation.

In the final analysis, the fact remains that liberating the land and restoring rights can only be achieved through continuous resistance, and that every Zionist attempt to eliminate the Palestinian people will be met with a will that does not know surrender. Thus, Palestine remains the compass of the free.

The author is a Jordanian writer and contributed this piece in Arabic for the JO24 website.

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Can Joseph Aoun Get Lebanon Out of its Rut?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

We have grown accustomed to Lebanon being in the headlines as a result of blood and destruction, but no longer. Whether due to the weakening of Iran, determination of the international community and/or both, all this appears to be changing.

Lebanon has now officially elected a new president, ending a long period of political crisis that has long left the country without a head of state since the term of former president Michel Aoun expired in late October 2022. After protracted negotiations and intense political maneuvering, not to mention Arab and international pressure, general Aoun, with a tough military reputation who has lead the army since 2017, has become the latest leader of the country.

General Aoun takes office amidst a period of significant economic and social challenges for Lebanon, as the country is grappling with an acute and ongoing financial crisis, soaring rates of unemployment, and the collapse of its currency, in addition to the refugee crisis and deteriorating infrastructure that has left Lebanon hanging by a thread.

In fact to top it all, the powerful sectarian political groups which hindered the election of a president for the past 26 months and more will not likely disappear with the election of general Aoun despite the seemingly robust character of the new leader.

The new 14th Lebanese president in his first address to parliament, vowed to work with all political factions to implement reforms and tackle the pressing economic issues that has long log-jammed the country. His speech was one that had determination and a sense of purpose and appeal with a rallying-cry for all of the fractious political groups of Lebanon.

Having said that, and despite the election in the Lebanese Parliament, the country’s future still remains uncertain with challenges. The new president will need to navigate carefully the deeply entrenched political system which often leads to gridlock and an inability to implement meaningful change.

Additionally, the country’s economy remains in freefall, with millions of Lebanese struggling to afford basic goods and services. Therefore, it is clear the road ahead will be a challenging one to say the least. Logically for many, the focus has already turned to whether the new president can live up to the promise of healing the nation and lead it towards a more stable system.

From the Arab and international perspectives, the messages of support from both seem to be encouraging, but this support will need to be translated into monetary terms for re-building the country. It is said there is the promise of $10 billion earmarked for this effort but frozen on the condition that Lebanon elects a president based.

Now this hurdle has been overcome and passed. At the end of the day as well, General Aoun is seen as the consensus candidate for the Arab countries as well as the international community. In this sense, the release of the re-building funds may look optimistic but there is still the snag of the question of Hezbollah and Israel’s future belligerent intentions towards the country, issues that are still to be ironed out.

The new Lebanese administration needs guarantees from Hezbollah in as much as it needs guarantees from the new Lebanese administration, and the Arab and international community eagerly awaits the results of this dimension because, putting it bluntly, no one wishes to see their investments blown up in another war nor their money burnt in smoke.

All that one can say under the circumstances, is that General Aoun, and he is the fourth president to be chosen from the military establishment, can negotiate with Hezbollah to surrender their heavy weapons to the Lebanese Army while keeping their light weapons; at least for the time being, and stay away from the Litani River as demanded by Israel.

But this will need considerable political dexterity and acumen.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

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Despite UN Appeals Israel Maintains Hardline Approach on Gaza

Civilian casualties and injuries continue to be reported across Gaza due to the ongoing hostilities, with most families unable to afford basic food as the humanitarian situation deteriorates, a UN spokesperson reported, Thursday. In Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping mission in the south of the country urged both Israel and Lebanon to prevent any actions that could threaten the fragile ceasefire.

The relentless fighting in the Gaza Strip, which began last October, continues to cause widespread destruction and drive displacement, according to a note issued by the UN Spokesperson’s Office.

“The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stresses once again that civilians and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, must be protected and spared from attacks,” the note stated.

The note also cited reports that Israeli authorities continue to deny and impede aid missions across the war-ravaged enclave.

“Out of 12 UN requests for coordinated humanitarian movements yesterday, six requests were denied outright, three were cancelled by the organizers due to security or logistical challenges, one was approved but faced impediments, and two others were facilitated and accomplished,” the note stated.

“One attempt to reach besieged parts of North Gaza governorate was denied yesterday and another one today,” it added.

Despite access restrictions and insecurity, aid organizations are working tirelessly to assist the most vulnerable as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens.

With most families unable to afford basic food, prices have skyrocketed. Reports indicate that a 25-kilogram bag of wheat flour is now priced between $160 and $190.

“Humanitarian partners working to address hunger in Gaza estimate that as of mid-December, 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat flour are needed to distribute one bag of flour to all families in Deir al Balah, Khan Younis and Rafah,” the note said.

“Without this, food insecurity in central and southern areas of the Strip will only worsen.”

UN Mission urges protection of ceasefire in Lebanon

Meanwhile, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stressed that any actions threatening the fragile cessation of hostilities, agreed last month between Israel and Lebanon, must cease.

“Israel and Lebanon have recommitted to full implementation of Security Council resolution 1701,” UNIFIL in a statement, calling on both parties to use the newly established Mechanism as agreed to address outstanding issues.

UNIFIL also called for the timely withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon as part of the full implementation of the resolution as a comprehensive path toward peace.

It also noted concern over destruction caused by the IDF in residential areas, agricultural land and road networks in southern Lebanon, adding that such actions violate resolution 1701.

“UNIFIL stands ready to play its role in supporting both countries meet their obligations and monitoring progress,” the Mission said.

“This includes ensuring the area south of the Litani River is free of any armed personnel, assets or weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL as well as respect for the Blue Line.”

It added that UN peacekeepers will continue their mandated tasks, including monitoring and reporting all violations of resolution 1701 to the Security Council.

UN News

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Israel Bombs Church in South Lebanon

Sarah, Independent Lebanese geopolitical commentator, wrote:

Merry Christmas from Saint Georges of Derdghaiya in South Lebanon.

This ancient Church, which has stood for over 300 years, was bombed and reduced to rubble by Israel.

Nine innocent civilians, seeking refuge within its sacred walls, were killed in cold blood.

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Lebanon Tells Israel to Stop Violating The Ceasefire

The Israeli army on Tuesday committed at least 12 more violations of cease-fire in Lebanon that took effect last month to end more than a year of cross-border warfare with Hezbollah, state media reported.

According to the official Lebanese National News Agency (NNA), the violations concentrated in the districts of Tyre, Marjayoun and Hasbaiyya in southern Lebanon, and in the districts of Rachaiya and Western Bekaa in the country’s east.

The violations included airstrikes, drones and fighter jets flights, destruction of homes, bulldozing streets and artillery shelling according to Anadolu.

In the Tyre district, an Israeli drone strike targeted a car in the town of Majdalzoun that left three people injured.

The Israeli army also bulldozed a number of roads and destroyed a home in the town of Naqoura. Several homes were also destroyed in the town of Kfarkela.

While artillery struck the towns of Kfarshouba, Halta and Sheba in the Hasbaiyya district, warplanes flew over the districts of Rachaiya and Western Bekaa at a medium altitude.

Lebanese authorities have reported around 248 Israeli violations of the truce since it came into force on Nov. 27.

Since then, according to an Anadolu tally based on Health Ministry figures, at least 30 people have been killed and 37 others injured in Israeli attacks.

Under the terms of the cease-fire, Israel is required to withdraw its forces south of the Blue Line – a de facto border – in phases, while the Lebanese army is to deploy in southern Lebanon within 60 days.

Over 4,000 people were killed and more than 16,500 injured in Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and over 1 million others displaced since October 2023, according to Lebanese health authorities.

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