CrossFireArarbia

‘This War is Not Hours’

CrossFireArabia
March 11, 2026

Events in the Middle East are accelerating, foreshadowing a comprehensive regional explosion. However, a deeper reading of the situation transcends the traditional narrative that attempts to portray the conflict as an “Arab-Iranian” or sectarian one that transcends borders. The reality emerging today from the rubble of burning military bases and oil facilities is clear: this war is not ours; it is a major strategic war led by Washington with direct Israeli planning, aimed at reshaping the region to serve absolute Western hegemony, even if the price is turning Arab capitals into arenas of destruction and settling scores in which we have no stake.

For years, the United States promoted the concept of “deterrence” and providing protection to allied countries in exchange for billions of dollars in arms deals and a massive military presence. However, Operation “True Promise 5” and the subsequent precise Iranian strikes have stripped away the fig leaf from these claims. Field reports indicate that US bases, once described as “impregnable fortresses,” have become vulnerable targets themselves, requiring protection. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, damage to the AN/FPS-132 early warning radar and the AN/TPY-2 facility resulted in a near-total paralysis of surveillance capabilities.

In Bahrain, home to the Fifth Fleet, the destruction of satellite communications stations led to a loss of centralized control over naval vessels. In Kuwait and the UAE, the casualties and the destruction of F-15 fighter jets revealed that advanced US technology was incapable of countering waves of drones and missiles that disrupted even civilian air traffic and struck vital facilities at Jebel Ali Port, reducing military installations and oil depots to ashes.

This resounding failure raises a fundamental question about the viability of relying on a “security umbrella” that has failed to protect its own perimeter and has become a security burden, attracting attacks rather than repelling them. This is no longer mere political analysis; it has become a public admission emanating from the corridors of Washington. What Senator Lindsey Graham recently revealed represents the pinnacle of terrifying candor. He confirmed that the true agenda is not about spreading “democracy” or protecting allies, but rather about embroiling the Gulf States as the military front and human cannon fodder in a direct confrontation with Iran. This is a prelude to seizing oil wells and managing the region’s wealth for Washington’s benefit, thus paying the price for the American presence, while simultaneously imposing full normalization and strangling China’s energy lifeline.

The United States’ recent attempt to seek refuge in French bases in the UAE, such as Al Dhafra Air Base and Camp de la Paix, is nothing more than a desperate effort to spread losses and hide behind the European umbrella after the deterioration of the original American bases. However, even these shared bases have not been immune to attack.

The strikes have proven that any facility supporting Western operations is a legitimate target in this zero-sum confrontation. The effects of this war extend beyond the military arena, striking at the very heart of daily life. The threat to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered seismic repercussions in global markets. The price of a barrel of oil jumped to around $116, an increase of more than $38, while gas prices in Europe rose by more than €25, and oil shipping costs soared by over 90 per cent, foreshadowing an uncontrollable wave of global inflation.

The United States, which today expresses its “displeasure” at Israel exceeding expectations in striking Iranian fuel depots, is not acting out of a desire for peace, but rather out of fear that the economic game will backfire on it and on oil markets, which cannot withstand the loss of Gulf supplies, especially given the 11 per cent increase in gasoline prices in America and the 70 per cent increase in jet fuel prices. What is happening in Jebel Ali, Manama, Doha, and Kuwait is not a struggle to defend Arab sovereignty, but rather a settling of scores between major powers that want to use Arab land as a chessboard.

The American bases that are groaning today under the weight of the strikes have proven to be a “paper tiger” when it comes to protecting allies, and that their presence is nothing but a magnet for crises that drains Arab capabilities for the benefit of foreign agendas that do not take into account Arab national security.

Arab capitals must realize, before it’s too late, that the “illusion of protection” has completely evaporated under the weight of missiles and drones. To be drawn into Israel’s desire to destroy the region, and to accommodate American ambitions to seize energy resources to finance its expansionist policies, is strategic suicide by any measure.

This raging war is not our war, and staying out of the inferno of this manufactured conflict is the only way to ensure that our wealth and the future of our generations do not become fuel for the schemes of Netanyahu, Trump, and the war profiteers behind them.

The time has come to seriously seek a self-reliant regional security system, one that originates from within the continent and is based on the shared interests of the region’s countries, far removed from foreign bases that today lack even the most basic military effectiveness and have become a strategic burden that itself needs protection after its defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed.

False American promises only increase our subservience and dependence on a modern colonial project that sees Arabs as nothing more than insignificant figures on its debt list, or mere cheap tools in its proxy wars. The true protection of homelands begins today with disengaging from these destructive agendas, and with the explicit acknowledgment that bases that have failed to protect their own walls and platforms will never be a shield for others.

Hasan Al-Dajah, a Professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, is a columnist in the Jordan Times.

Analyses

Ali Larijani: The Man Behind Iran’s War

CrossFireArabia
March 11, 2026

As war reshapes Iran’s leadership landscape, veteran power broker Ali Larijani has emerged as a central figure coordinating strategy and continuity.

Key Takeaways

Ali Larijani, a veteran Iranian statesman and former parliament speaker, now plays a central role in Iran’s wartime decision-making.
Reports indicate Larijani is coordinating strategic policy through Iran’s Supreme National Security Council during the ongoing conflict.
His decades-long career spans the Revolutionary Guards, state media leadership, nuclear diplomacy, and parliamentary politics.
Larijani is widely regarded as a pragmatic conservative with deep ties to Iran’s clerical and security establishments.
In a moment of leadership transition, Larijani has emerged as one of the key figures ensuring institutional continuity in Iran.

Iran’s Pragmatic Power Broker

Few figures embody the institutional continuity of the Islamic Republic as clearly as Ali Larijani, a veteran politician whose career spans Iran’s military, media, parliament, and national security establishment.

Born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1958, Larijani comes from one of Iran’s most influential clerical families. His father, Ayatollah Mirza Hashem Amoli, was a prominent religious scholar, and several members of the Larijani family have held senior positions within the Iranian state.

This combination of clerical pedigree and political experience would later position Larijani as one of the Islamic Republic’s most enduring insiders.

Revolutionary Guards

Larijani began his career in the early years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, serving within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Over the following decades, he moved steadily through the ranks of Iran’s political and administrative institutions. He held a series of posts within government ministries before becoming head of Iran’s state broadcasting organization, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), in 1994.

Larijani remained in that position for nearly a decade, overseeing the country’s powerful state media apparatus during a critical period in Iran’s political development.

In 2004, he was appointed security adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a move that placed him closer to the core of Iran’s decision-making structure.

Nuclear Negotiator

Larijani’s national prominence expanded significantly in 2005 when he became secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s top strategic policy body.

In that capacity, he also served as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, representing the country in early talks with Western powers over its nuclear program. Although he later stepped down from that role, Larijani remained central to Iran’s political landscape.

From 2008 to 2020, he served as speaker of Iran’s parliament, the Majles, one of the longest tenures in the history of the position.

During that period, he played an important role in shaping legislation related to Iran’s nuclear policy, economic governance, and relations with the outside world. He was also instrumental in helping shepherd the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers through the Iranian political system.

Pragmatic Tendencies

Ideologically, Larijani is associated with Iran’s principlist conservative camp, which broadly supports the political framework of the Islamic Republic.

Yet analysts frequently describe him as a pragmatic figure capable of navigating Iran’s complex factional landscape. Larijani has often positioned himself as a bridge between competing political camps within the Iranian system.

His reputation for strategic thinking and bureaucratic competence has made him a trusted figure within the country’s governing institutions.

Wartime Decision-Making

Today, Larijani once again stands near the center of Iran’s strategic apparatus.

Serving as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he plays a key role in coordinating Iran’s national security and defense policies during one of the most volatile periods in the country’s modern history.

The position places him at the intersection of Iran’s political leadership, security institutions, and military command structures.

As Iran navigates war and internal leadership transition, Larijani’s long experience across multiple branches of the state has made him one of the most influential figures guiding the country’s response.

(The Palestine Chronicle)

News

Iran Fools Israel With Inflatable Tanks

CrossFireArabia
March 11, 2026

Posted by Reza Samo

Iran again fooled Israel with a surprisingly simple military trick.

Military decoys have been used for decades, but Iran appears to be taking the tactic to a new level. Reports suggest Tehran has purchased thousands of inflatable tanks, fighter jets, and missile launchers—many reportedly sourced from China—to mislead enemy surveillance and airstrikes.

The strategy is straightforward but effective: create realistic-looking targets that draw enemy fire away from real military assets. In some cases, it could mean forcing an opponent to spend a $2 million precision missile on a $500 inflatable decoy.

These fake systems are designed to look convincing from satellite imagery, drones, and even certain radar systems. From a distance, they can appear nearly identical to real armored vehicles or missile platforms, making it difficult for attackers to immediately distinguish between genuine and fake targets.

According to some reports, the tactic may already be complicating targeting decisions during the conflict. By flooding the battlefield with decoys, Iran could potentially increase the cost of airstrikes for its adversaries while protecting its actual equipment from destruction.

News

Israeli War on Lebanon Displaces Around 700,000

CrossFireArabia
March 11, 2026

It has been just over a week since the new escalation in conflict started on 2 March, when Israeli evacuation warnings to residents of more than 53 villages and densely populated areas in Lebanon and intensified airstrikes forced families across Lebanon to flee within minutes. Lives have been upended on a massive scale.

According to the authorities, as of today, more than 667,000 people in Lebanon have now registered on the government’s online displacement platform – an increase of over 100,000 in just one day – and numbers continue to rise.

Around 120,000 of the displaced are sheltering in government-designated collective sites, while many others are staying with relatives or friends, or are still searching for accommodation. Many – often displaced for the second time since the hostilities in 2024 – fled in a rush with almost nothing, seeking safety in Beirut, Mount Lebanon, northern districts and parts of the Bekaa.

During a visit yesterday to a shelter in Beirut, I met a woman in her 90s who had lost 11 members of her family during the 2024 attacks. She is now displaced again, staying in the same school that was turned into a shelter. Stories like hers illustrate the fear, uncertainty and repeated trauma families are facing.

We are also seeing urgent movements into Syria. According to Syrian authorities, more than 78,000 Syrians have entered from Lebanon since the escalation began, and over 7,700 Lebanese. Among them are Syrian refugees who had been planning to return home in the coming months, and others who now rushed to return due to the current escalation. UNHCR teams are present at Syrian border crossings alongside authorities and partners to support those arriving with essential relief.

In Lebanon, since day one, UNHCR has supported the government and local authorities in responding to the crisis. To date, we have delivered around 168,000 emergency items to more than 63,000 displaced people across over 270 government-designated collective shelters. These include mattresses, blankets, sleeping mats, sleeping bags, solar lamps, and jerry cans, helping displaced families meet their most urgent needs.

To ensure this critical assistance reaches as many displaced people as quickly as possible, UNHCR is dispatching relief items from our warehouse to the collective shelters through multiple channels: through national and international NGO partners, as well as through municipal authorities and partners like the Lebanese Red Cross, ensuring fast, coordinated support, even in hard‑to‑access areas where some families remain.

I have seen first-hand over the past week how this volatile situation and displacement also trigger fear and emotional trauma. Children and adults alike, including many older people, are in shock and fear. UNHCR, through community centres, outreach volunteers and protection partners, is providing psychosocial support, identifying people at heightened risk, reuniting separated children with families, and assisting people with disabilities. – Reliefweb

At the current pace of displacement, we are working hard to replenish our country-level stocks of essential items, but UNHCR’s operation in Lebanon is currently only 14 per cent funded. Fast and sustained international solidarity is critical to enable us to support the Lebanese Government and authorities in responding to the emerging needs. Every day this conflict continues, more suffering is inflicted on hundreds of thousands of civilians, while Lebanon and the region are further destabilized.

Civilians must be protected at all times, and safe, unhindered humanitarian access must be guaranteed so aid can reach those who need it most.

For more information, please contact:

In Beirut, Dalal Harb: [email protected], +961 70113107
In Amman, Rula Amin: [email protected], +962 (0) 790 045 84
In Geneva, Babar Baloch: [email protected], +41 79 513 95 49

Uncategorized

What Hold Does Netanyahu Have on Trump?

CrossFireArabia
March 10, 2026

By Abdel Barri Atwan

Criticism is mounting against US President Donald Trump within the American ruling elite for his embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu and the racist right wing rulers of Israel, his capitulation to their pressure to prioritize Israel, and his mobilization of all American military and diplomatic capabilities to serve their wars in the Middle East, particularly against Iran.

The American president has become a laughingstock due to his ignorance of the Middle East and its history, both ancient and modern. The latest manifestation of this ignorance is the awakening of America, both its leadership and its people, to the astonishing resilience of the Iranian military on the battlefronts, the success of its forces in destroying all American military bases, and, more significantly, the resilience of the Iranian ruling establishment and the regime’s failure to collapse despite American military strikes and the assassination attempt against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.

We don’t know the secret behind Trump’s weakness in the face of Netanyahu, his transformation into a puppet in Netanyahu’s hands, carrying out his orders without hesitation. During his first term, he moved the US embassy to occupied Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran. In his second term, he supported the war of annihilation in the Gaza Strip and sent his bombers to launch two attacks on Iran: the first in June (the 12-day war) and the second 10 days ago. Trump went even further when he begged the Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu, ending his appearance before the Israeli Supreme Court in four corruption cases.

There is a prevailing theory, supported by the majority of observers, that explains this submission to Netanyahu by the leader of the world’s most powerful nation. It suggests that this subservience stems from scandalous files held by the Israeli Mossad, implicating Trump in the sexual abuse of minors, known as the Epstein files. These videos were used to blackmail him.

The only thing Trump learned from his “mentor” Netanyahu was lying, impulsive decision-making, and a contemptuous and arrogant attitude toward the other side and its capabilities. There are numerous examples of this, most notably the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities last June, claiming their complete destruction, only to find them still intact. The current aggression against Iran six months later is the strongest evidence.

And while we’re on the subject of Iran, we mustn’t forget Trump’s pledge and insistence on his approval of the new Iranian Supreme Leader, and his veto of the selection of Mojtaba, the son of the martyred Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Now, the Iranian deep state has delivered a powerful and humiliating blow to him by voting for Mojtaba in the internal elections held by the Assembly of Experts in a secret location and under American and Israeli bombardment. It is certain that Trump will not succeed in assassinating him or preventing him from remaining in power for long.

Trump will go down in history as the American leader who destroyed America’s prestige and all its global bases, its superior military deterrent, and his country’s third defeat in the Middle East—after Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Iran. All these setbacks stem from his breaking his promises to put America first and to refrain from foreign intervention and wars.

Trump’s days seem numbered, as the American people and the deep state will not allow him to continue his destructive policies against their security, economy, and prestige. His defeat in Iran is now clear, leaving him with only two options: Either continue the war and suffer further defeats and losses, or a swift and unconditional ceasefire with Iran and the signing of a “surrender” agreement.

There are two indicators that he may choose to withdraw and retreat, indirectly acknowledging defeat and failure as an admission of error:

First: The swift and sudden cancellation at the last minute of the planned visit to Tel Aviv by his aides Steve Wittkov and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, as its purpose was to coordinate the escalation of aggression against Iran. Second: The destruction of more than 17 American bases in the Middle East by Iranian missiles would effectively cripple America’s military might.

Israel has embroiled America in a war of attrition from which it will emerge severely wounded and on the brink of bankruptcy due to the current global energy crisis. This crisis is a direct result of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the soaring prices of gas and oil, and the dramatic collapse of global financial markets. All of this is thanks to Iranian cunning, resilience, and military and political preparedness, and above all, their unwavering determination to fight to the death, whatever the cost.

This piece was translated from the Arabic daily website Al Rai Al Youm