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The Day After in Syria is Simply Bleak!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
December 30, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Syria has just turned a gloomy chapter of its long turbulent history that lasted for at least half-a-century. The question now is: Will this new era bring better or worse news for this beleaguered country and its people?

The new local stake holders on the ground and outside players are showing different and often conflicting signals of what lies ahead. A month ago, the totalitarian Assad dynasty regime collapsed, its
dictator fled the country, his strong men melted into the caves, his father’s imposing statues downed and his foreign supporters’ influence, Iran and Russia, evaporated. From this underdog dark side, the game
was over!

But it was not so on the other rising side of the game, where you have the local opposition of multiple groups and their new de facto foreign partners and friends, celebrating the defeat of the bygone oppressive regime.

All they see is a helpless, desperate and a lone prey for the cut! In real terms the country, so far, is being divided into different de facto regional enclaves or mini-states. Each is controlled by its own local
leaders. Members of each community share either the same faith, or speak the same language, or adhere to a host of old norms and traditions inherited from their ancestors.

Both leaders and their followers of each faction are finding themselves at a crucial turning point. Do they want to repeat what their previous leaders did when they, willy-nilly, allowed the central government under the Assad regime, run their daily life affaires, and then when it was too late, discovered that they were either deceived or coerced by the now defunct regime’s agents? Or are they saying no more of this stuff this time, and accordingly acting more independently to preserve their special identity and immune their rights?

The idea of partitioning Syria as we know it since its independence in 1946 is not new! It can be traced back to its pre-independence original format, conceived then by the French mandatory power in the early 1900s, when the Ottoman’s four centuries rule, of the whole of Arabia and North Africa, came to an end.

At that time, France, sanctioned by League of Nations, suggested to divide the country into five main enclaves or mini-states: An Alawite enclave on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean with Latakia as its capital, an Aleppo enclave in the north, a Jabal Druze enclave in the south, bordering Jordan, Alexandretta enclave which was taken by Turkey and renamed as the Hatay province, and finally the dominated Sunni region in the center with its capital Damascus.

Today, the US, with the consent of other good wishers, are openly pushing, by deeds and words, to create an additional enclave in the autonomous Kurdish oil-rich region in the north-eastern part of Syria.
On the Golan Heights, the new strong players are turning a blind eye to the serious Israeli military encroachments inside proper Syrian territories, previously recognized by the world community and UN resolutions. At the same time, the emerging clashes in the east and west of the country and other places in the center, between rivaling armed groups, leave little room for optimism.

The most important step Syrians need today is a constitution that can stand at the same distance from all components of the society. But surprisingly, the last statement attributed to the new top man in
Damascus saying such a constitution might take four to five years to come to life, can only send discouraging and negative signals to all the components of Syrian society and others!

A final question that must be asked: Is Syria nearing to lose its last chance to avoid falling back in the pre-independence fragmentation trap?

This opinion was especially written for Crossfire Arabia by Saleem Ayoub Quna who is a Jordanian author writing on local, regional and international affairs and has two books published. He has a BA in English Literature from Jordan University, a diploma from Paris and an MA from Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He also has working knowledge of French and German.

News

Syria Appoints Aisha Al Dibs in Interim Cabinet

CrossFireArabia
December 22, 2024

Surprising many, or not so, the new interim government in Syria, has appointed a women minister to head the “Women Affairs Section” in the cabinet.

Aisha Al Dibs name and image is trending on the social media as the first high-level official in the new administration after the fall of the Baath regime on 8 December, 2024.

Dibs, who previously worked in the field of humanitarian aid, describes herself on her social media account as “an activist focused on the development of women and humanitarian work according to Anadolu.

Opinion

Syria: A Hot Political Potato

Dr Khairi Janbek
December 16, 2024

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes are on Syria, simply because the only thing known about how the new Syria will look like is frankly, the unknown. What is prevailing in the new predictions and analysis is at best, and at worst blunt fears.

Of course, this is understandable considering the composition of the groups which are now trying to run the country. What is vey disconcerting however, is how the international media presented the war prior to the fall of Damascus in no more than a side show, giving the impression that, as big Syrian cities fell one after the other in the hands of the rebels, that an agreement was likely to be struck which will solve the concept peaceably. Well, such an agreement was not struck, and the victorious rebellion became the hot potato in the hands of all.

Now, how will the new regime look like in Syria? Frankly your guess is as good as mine. Will they act momentarily in a pluralistic manner, then adopt political Islam as regime ideology? Again, only time will tell, but also that would depend primarily, on the prevailing regional and international actors and players.

HTS Leader Al- Jolani: Syria Won’t Be Used As Launchpad For Attacks On Israel – Timeshttps://t.co/etqtdBsOw5
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) December 16, 2024

For a start, the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey will not greatly depend on the shape of the new regime, so long of course, as the new regime in Damascus continues to protect the Russian interests in warm water bases, and be a wall against Kurdish armed groups threatening Turkish interests.

Then of course there is Israel, which after it destroyed Syrian military capabilities, has no fear of war with Damascus, but does fear the potential presence of a regime adopting political Islamist trappings on its borders, which it will use as an excuse use to expand and probably annex Syrian, and maybe Lebanese territories before the dust settles down.

However, when it comes to the Arab neighbors of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, it’s only natural they would feel concerned but for different reasons. For Jordan, the recent history of Iraqi political instability and the associated acts of terrorism are still fresh in the mind of everyone in the Kingdom, so in no uncertain terms, Jordan would wish to see on its border, a regime adopting political Islam, lest it suffers once more from terror acts that are likely to push for military action and in which it doesn’t wish to be involved in.

As for Iraq, the sectarian troubles are still fresh in the minds of everyone. Certainly the Iraqi government doesn’t wish to see a regime on its borders which has the potential of igniting an unwanted sectarian civil war. As for the rest of the Arab countries, the question remains theoretical – plainly speaking being against political Islam .

As for Syria itself, it’s rather banal to repeat the obvious which is, that it is pluralistic country. But, how can you mange such a country, if indeed this is the intention intention and not shoving it up everyone’s throat ideology by blood and fire.

For a start every community, ethnic and religious, has to feel secure, and secondly they need to know that they have a stake in the future of the country, and that can only happen by establishing a truly functioning parliament freely elected by all of its constituents, then adopt a prime ministerial system of government accountable to the people with a titular president of the republic. No political party should be prohibited to field parliamentary candidates except those associated with armed groups.

At the end of the day, the only thing which will turn the current victorious rebels into extremist islamists is the specter of internal civil conflict which everyone is trying to avoid.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian commentator currently based in Paris.

News

Israel Continues to Strike Syria Despite ‘Assurance’

CrossFireArabia
December 15, 2024

Israel has struck Syria 61 times in less than five hours, Sunday, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The news is trending on the social media with the Israeli strikes reaching Damascus, Homs, Deraa, Suwayda, Sednaya, the so-called torture chamber prison under the Al Assad regime.

BREAKING🚨 Sixty Israeli Airstrikes on Damascus Syria in the last hour.pic.twitter.com/D53S3vQgl4
— Syrian Girl 🇸🇾 (@Partisangirl) December 15, 2024

However, the Observatory claims 52 of these strikes were conducted on military depots that belonged to the ousted regime inside different areas of Syria.

The Observatory, which is based in the UK, claims that since the fall of Bashar Al Assad last week, Israel conducted 446 airstrikes on Syria on 8 December, 2024.

Syria watchers, including those in the Arab world are condemning the non-stop Israeli attacks as willful destruction of essential security public property that now belongs to the Syrian people.

The new Syrian leader Ahmad Al Sharaa, known as Mohammad Al Jolani whose HTS (Hayat Tahrir Al Sham) group was mainly responsible for the ouster of the old Baathist regime says he is not interested in a new conflict with Israel.

But despite this the Israelis, who occupy the Golan Heights, continue to bomb Syrian targets

News

After 42 Years Jordanian Freed From Syria Prisons

CrossFireArabia
December 14, 2024

The Jerusalemite Walid Barakat, who hails from the village of Nabi Samouil, northwest of occupied Jerusalem, was released and reunited with his family in Jordan after entering prison life in Syria as a young man at the age of 26.

Barakat said that “life was written for him several times in prison after he was close to death,” and that he learned of his life sentence after 30 years of imprisonment.

Barakat’s nephew pointed out that “his uncle arrived at the border physically exhausted after the opposition forces took him there immediately after he revealed his nationality,” adding “Walid has a large family in Jordan that will embrace him forever after years of forced absence from them.”

He added that “Walid spent 14 years in solitary confinement, and that the family did not know exactly where he was, whether he was detained in Syria, Turkey or Lebanon, until his name was listed in 1996 among the Palestinian detainees in Syrian prisons in a newspaper through the efforts made by international human rights organizations.”

He said, “the family started communicating with him through some Syrians who contact him by phone, and they told him of our news and they conveyed his news to us.”

Walid was arrested by Syrian forces at the Damascus airport on 31 October, 1982, and was subjected to solitary confinement in Tadmur prison for many years, where he experienced the worst forms of torture, before the opposition forces opened the prison doors and freed the prisoners and he immediately headed towards the border with Jordan, according to his family.

The family added that “Walid never saw sunlight during his solitary confinement, and inside the prisons he became a number that was called out like the rest of the prisoners.”

His relatives said, “the only meeting that brought him together with one of his family members was in 2005 when Hatem’s father and sister traveled to Syria and met him in Mezzeh prison in Damascus, and no one was able to visit him after that.”

On 27 November, the Syrian armed opposition factions launched their “Deterrence of Aggression” operation, starting from Idlib and Aleppo, then Hama and Homs, arriving in Damascus, which they entered at dawn last Sunday, announcing the fall of the Assad regime according to the Quds News Network.