Hormuz Strait in The Checkered Ceasefire

Re-opening the Strait of Hormuz would bring vital relief for many economies, but developing countries will continue to grapple with increased food and fuel costs, according to a new UN report released on Tuesday.

Following the shaky ceasefire in the US and Israeli war with Iran, commercial shipping through the strait quickly began to rebound in mid-June, but has slowed in recent days as Washington and Tehran have exchanged strikes in the region.

Iran has reportedly rejected an effort by France and Oman to remove mines from the strait and safeguard international trade as well as a suggestion by the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) to open a new shipping lane off the coast of Oman.

While the report from the UN Trade and Development agency (UNCTAD) expects oil shipments to recover, it warns that freight contracts, supply chains and food systems would take longer to adjust and that high food costs could contribute to acute malnutrition in developing countries.

Vulnerable economies bear the brunt

Higher energy prices fuel higher transport costs, agricultural costs and inflation, which increases food prices long after the initial shock, UNCTAD noted.

Small island countries like Cabo Verde and Micronesia depend heavily on food and oil imports, which creates a “dual exposure” to shocks, making them especially vulnerable to price increases, UNCTAD said.

The agency estimated that 61 vulnerable economies are exposed to both oil and cereal import shocks.

Developing countries and small island States also tend to have tighter public finances and therefore less ability to absorb shocks, according to UNCTAD.

If these countries face difficulties mobilising resources, a heavy debt servicing burden, a drop in remittances or a decline in international aid, trade shocks could affect small nations even more.

Impact on food security

Beyond economic impacts, UNCTAD warned that although it is necessary to fully re-open the strait, food production risks remain.

Even short periods of unaffordable food in import-dependent countries can have lasting consequences for child wasting, meaning that a child has a low weight-for-height.

As real food prices increase by five per cent, the risk of child wasting increases by 15 per cent for poor children and 26 per cent for children of rural, landless poor households.

The report called for greater international support to help countries manage higher import costs, cushion food and fuel price shocks and strengthen their ability to cope with future trade disruptions.

“These shocks will be felt for many months, with developing countries bearing the heaviest impacts. I call on all parties to honour the ceasefire and redouble efforts,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. UN News

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Trump Ticks Off Israel in Rebuke…

US President Donald Trump, Tuesday, issued a rare rebuke of Israel, rejecting the destruction of entire residential buildings in Lebanon in the search for a single Hezbollah member. He noted that many of the residents of those buildings are not affiliated with the group.

This came in remarks he made to reporters after meeting with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France. It comes two days after the announcement of a US-Iranian agreement.

In response to a reporter’s question, Trump said: “I’m not happy with the way Israel has dealt with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. They should have been able to get the job done much faster.”

He added: “You don’t have to destroy an entire apartment building every time looking for one Hezbollah member; there are many people living in those buildings, and not all of them are Hezbollah members.”

Trump said he had suggested to Israel that Syria be left to deal with the Lebanese Hezbollah group.

He pointed out: “The person running Syria (Ahmed al-Sharaa) is someone that I, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and other figures supported, and we helped him come to power. He has done an exceptional job in restructuring the country.” He continued: “I suggested to Israel that Syria take care of Hezbollah, because frankly I think they would do a better job.”

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He added: “If Israel can’t get the job done against Hezbollah without killing everyone, then (Syria) will take over. Syria will do the job.”

Trump also criticized the Israeli attack on Beirut just before the signing of the US-Iran agreement, saying: “I didn’t think it was right for Israel to attack Lebanon and Beirut hours before the agreement was signed. I didn’t like it at all, and I told him (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) that very clearly.”

Trump said that without the United States, “Israel wouldn’t exist and would have been destroyed,” calling on Netanyahu to act more responsibly toward Lebanon.

On Sunday, the Israeli army launched an airstrike targeting an apartment building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, claiming to be targeting “Hezbollah targets,” while the world awaited the imminent signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to end the war.

The airstrike killed three people, including two women, and wounded 16 others, including four women. Iran vowed an “imminent response” to the Israeli attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

On Sunday evening, Washington and Tehran announced an agreement, brokered by Pakistan, to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the naval blockade on Iran. The agreement is scheduled to be signed in Switzerland next Friday.

Since 2 March, 2026, Israel escalated its aggression against Lebanon as part of the ongoing conflict it has waged, alongside the United States, against Iran.

These attacks have resulted in the deaths of 3,826 people and injuries to 11,851 others in Lebanon, according to the latest figures released by the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

Israel continues to occupy areas in southern Lebanon, some for decades, and others since the previous war between 2023 and 2024, while during the current aggression it has expanded the scope of its incursion to a distance of more than 10 kilometers inside Lebanese territory according to Anadolu.

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Trump: No Plans to Seize Iran’s Uranium

US President Donald Trump has paused a plan by the military to forcibly seize Iran’s enriched uranium, CNN reported Friday, citing sources.

The US military’s top officer made a secret, hurried trip to US Central Command headquarters in Florida late last month to receive an in-person briefing on plans for a potential ground operation in Iran aimed at seizing the country’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the report.

The briefings were considered so urgent and sensitive that Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cut short a meeting of senior NATO officials in Brussels and flew back to Tampa on May 19, the report said.

The high-level discussions highlight how close the administration came to approving the risky operation. Caine later presented the military options to Trump, the report said.

Trump ultimately paused the plan after being warned it could trigger severe Iranian retaliation, prolong the conflict, and further destabilize the global economy. He was also concerned about the possibility of significant US casualties, according to the report.

Planning for the operation occurred even as Trump repeatedly said the US and Iran were nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and conclude negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to the report. Anadolu

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Diving in a War Zone

By Jing Zhang

When US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on 28 February, triggering one of the most serious geopolitical crises in years, the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow channel just 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point – became a global flashpoint overnight.

Iran closed the waterway to foreign shipping, attacking merchant vessels and cutting off around 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Some 20,000 seafarers were stranded in the Persian Gulf. The UN Secretary-General called for an immediate ceasefire.

Beneath all of it, the fish kept swimming.

Back in the water

Three Chinese divers based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – diving instructor Rui Li, freediver Shanshan Du and technical diver Jie Zhang – had been locked out of the water for weeks by the coastal closure. When a ceasefire allowed limited access in mid-April, they went straight back in.

World Oceans Day, marked each year on 8 June, carries the theme this year of Reimagining the Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean. For these three, that reimagining is anything but abstract.

“We were actually a little worried before setting off,” says Du, who dived the narrowest stretch between the UAE and Oman on 18 April, just days after the UN welcomed Iran’s announcement that the strait would be open to commercial vessels during the ceasefire. 

“But after more than two months, we all felt it was fantastic to be able to dive again. We encountered a large group of dolphins. There was none of the war-torn atmosphere I had imagined – only peace and beauty before my eyes.”

Zhang, who dived the area as recently as last week, describes coral diversity she has rarely encountered elsewhere – soft and hard corals varying with the topography, and sea turtles gathered in such numbers they evoked a nature reserve.

A person in a scuba diving suit and mask makes a peace sign against the ocean and blue sky.
Courtesy of Jie Zhang. Jie Zhang is back from the depths, feeling the warmth of the sun.

Troubling signs

She also noticed something more troubling. “I saw more white debris on the seabed than before,” she says, uncertain of its origin. And when she and her companions followed dolphins near the eastern side of the strait, the water around the animals was streaked with green algae, oil fumes and floating rubbish. 

“I recalled that when I used to chase dolphins, the water was blue. Seeing this scene with my own eyes is still very heartbreaking.”

Li is careful to hold both realities at once. The strait is not the world’s most biodiverse marine zone, he notes, but its complex topography sustains coral reefs of unusual variety – formations “as white as silver needles” alongside colonies “as purple as pine forests” – as well as seahorses, whale sharks and species rarely seen elsewhere.

He describes witnessing a boat captain who, unable to dive and with no other means of communication, could reliably find a pod of dolphins that seemed to recognise him. “We would greet each other and then go our separate ways,” Li says. “This place is truly magical.”

A wide bay with deep blue water, bordered by arid, rocky mountains and a small coastal settlement on the right.
©Jie Zhang Overlooking the Strait of Hormuz from the Musandam Peninsula, Oman.

Potential catastrophe

Yet he is also acutely aware of what armed conflict can do to such a place. An attack on oil storage facilities, he points out, could be catastrophic for marine life. “Many marine organisms are small and vulnerable. A single attack could be enough to wipe out some amazing species that have never been seen by humans.”

Zhang frames the underwater world’s vulnerability in blunt terms. “No one can speak for the underwater ecosystem  – fish can’t speak, and neither can large animals. 

“We dump all the disputes, wars and pollution on land onto the ocean, ignoring the fact that the ocean has no good self-protection capabilities and can only bear all the conflicts and damage caused by human activities.”

Diving has quietly dissolved certain certainties for all three. “Underwater, the ocean has no borders,” says Zhang. “Ocean currents and schools of fish move freely. When whale sharks cruise, they follow fixed routes through different countries – they are free. Humanity should share this blue world instead of tearing it apart with disputes.”

A person in a wetsuit and goggles floats in the ocean, adjusting their mask with both hands.
©Jie Zhang Rui Li makes a heart gesture to his dive buddy on the water’s surface, which also stands for “OK” in diving hand signal terms.

Mother ocean

Li reaches for a different metaphor – warmer, and perhaps more honest about the limits of human agency. The relationship between people and the sea, he suggests, is something like that between a child and a parent: the ocean sustains us, nurtures us, occasionally punishes us. 

“We have grown old enough to want to protect it, he says, yet what we can actually do remains small. “Our parents are still quietly waiting for us, helping us, and continuing to nurture us.”

Du, diving in a country where people of dozens of nationalities converge, has found that underwater, borders feel beside the point. Communication happens through gesture alone. “Because of this hobby, and because of the ocean, it has created a wonderful environment for us.”

The conflicts raging above the surface have not ended. Talks between Washington and Tehran remain fragile, conditions volatile. But 71 per cent of the Earth is ocean – and, as Li says to anyone who has yet to see it: come and touch the refreshing water whenever you can.

A school of sharks swimming in deep blue ocean water.
©Jie Zhang Madivaru Corner in the Maldives is a world-class dive site. Grey reef sharks and white-tip reef sharks are its permanent residents.

UN News

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Trump Threatens to Leave NATO But Can He?

US President Donald Trump on Thursday urged the members of NATO to gather the courage to send naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz, again disparaging the longtime military alliance.

Asked why he had not mentioned NATO in his Wednesday night address to the nation, Trump said it was not a NATO speech but that he had referenced the strait and those who were absent. “They gotta get guts and go in and just send your ships up there and enjoy it,” he told Politico.

Pressed on whether he was frustrated with the alliance, Trump said: “I couldn’t care less. I didn’t need them.”

He added: “But if I ever did need them, they wouldn’t be there.”

NATO has invoked Article 5 – its collective defense clause – just once in its history, after the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. NATO allies have criticized Trump for starting the war on Iran without consulting them.

The remarks are the latest in a string of pointed criticisms Trump has directed at NATO over its response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He has previously called alliance members “cowards” and, in a separate interview with British daily The Telegraph, described NATO as a “paper tiger” and said leaving the alliance was “beyond reconsideration.”

Leaving NATO unilaterally – a move Trump has hinted at since his first term – would face significant legal hurdles. A 2023 law bars any US president from withdrawing from the alliance without the backing of a two-thirds majority in the US Senate.

The strait, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, has been effectively disrupted since early March following Iranian measures taken in retaliation for the US-Israeli offensive on Iran that began on Feb. 28.

Trump has repeatedly urged European allies and Gulf states to take a more active role in securing the strait, arguing that countries dependent on its oil should bear responsibility for reopening it.

Trump will meet with NATO chief Mark Rutte in Washington next week, according to The Wall Street Journal. Anadolu

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