‘This War is Not Hours’

By Dr Hasan Al Dajah

Events in the Middle East are accelerating, foreshadowing a comprehensive regional explosion. However, a deeper reading of the situation transcends the traditional narrative that attempts to portray the conflict as an “Arab-Iranian” or sectarian one that transcends borders. The reality emerging today from the rubble of burning military bases and oil facilities is clear: this war is not ours; it is a major strategic war led by Washington with direct Israeli planning, aimed at reshaping the region to serve absolute Western hegemony, even if the price is turning Arab capitals into arenas of destruction and settling scores in which we have no stake.

For years, the United States promoted the concept of “deterrence” and providing protection to allied countries in exchange for billions of dollars in arms deals and a massive military presence. However, Operation “True Promise 5” and the subsequent precise Iranian strikes have stripped away the fig leaf from these claims. Field reports indicate that US bases, once described as “impregnable fortresses,” have become vulnerable targets themselves, requiring protection. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, damage to the AN/FPS-132 early warning radar and the AN/TPY-2 facility resulted in a near-total paralysis of surveillance capabilities.

In Bahrain, home to the Fifth Fleet, the destruction of satellite communications stations led to a loss of centralized control over naval vessels. In Kuwait and the UAE, the casualties and the destruction of F-15 fighter jets revealed that advanced US technology was incapable of countering waves of drones and missiles that disrupted even civilian air traffic and struck vital facilities at Jebel Ali Port, reducing military installations and oil depots to ashes.

This resounding failure raises a fundamental question about the viability of relying on a “security umbrella” that has failed to protect its own perimeter and has become a security burden, attracting attacks rather than repelling them. This is no longer mere political analysis; it has become a public admission emanating from the corridors of Washington. What Senator Lindsey Graham recently revealed represents the pinnacle of terrifying candor. He confirmed that the true agenda is not about spreading “democracy” or protecting allies, but rather about embroiling the Gulf States as the military front and human cannon fodder in a direct confrontation with Iran. This is a prelude to seizing oil wells and managing the region’s wealth for Washington’s benefit, thus paying the price for the American presence, while simultaneously imposing full normalization and strangling China’s energy lifeline.

The United States’ recent attempt to seek refuge in French bases in the UAE, such as Al Dhafra Air Base and Camp de la Paix, is nothing more than a desperate effort to spread losses and hide behind the European umbrella after the deterioration of the original American bases. However, even these shared bases have not been immune to attack.

The strikes have proven that any facility supporting Western operations is a legitimate target in this zero-sum confrontation. The effects of this war extend beyond the military arena, striking at the very heart of daily life. The threat to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered seismic repercussions in global markets. The price of a barrel of oil jumped to around $116, an increase of more than $38, while gas prices in Europe rose by more than €25, and oil shipping costs soared by over 90 per cent, foreshadowing an uncontrollable wave of global inflation.

The United States, which today expresses its “displeasure” at Israel exceeding expectations in striking Iranian fuel depots, is not acting out of a desire for peace, but rather out of fear that the economic game will backfire on it and on oil markets, which cannot withstand the loss of Gulf supplies, especially given the 11 per cent increase in gasoline prices in America and the 70 per cent increase in jet fuel prices. What is happening in Jebel Ali, Manama, Doha, and Kuwait is not a struggle to defend Arab sovereignty, but rather a settling of scores between major powers that want to use Arab land as a chessboard.

The American bases that are groaning today under the weight of the strikes have proven to be a “paper tiger” when it comes to protecting allies, and that their presence is nothing but a magnet for crises that drains Arab capabilities for the benefit of foreign agendas that do not take into account Arab national security.

Arab capitals must realize, before it’s too late, that the “illusion of protection” has completely evaporated under the weight of missiles and drones. To be drawn into Israel’s desire to destroy the region, and to accommodate American ambitions to seize energy resources to finance its expansionist policies, is strategic suicide by any measure.

This raging war is not our war, and staying out of the inferno of this manufactured conflict is the only way to ensure that our wealth and the future of our generations do not become fuel for the schemes of Netanyahu, Trump, and the war profiteers behind them.

The time has come to seriously seek a self-reliant regional security system, one that originates from within the continent and is based on the shared interests of the region’s countries, far removed from foreign bases that today lack even the most basic military effectiveness and have become a strategic burden that itself needs protection after its defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed.

False American promises only increase our subservience and dependence on a modern colonial project that sees Arabs as nothing more than insignificant figures on its debt list, or mere cheap tools in its proxy wars. The true protection of homelands begins today with disengaging from these destructive agendas, and with the explicit acknowledgment that bases that have failed to protect their own walls and platforms will never be a shield for others.

Hasan Al-Dajah, a Professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, is a columnist in the Jordan Times.

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Can ‘Realist’ Trump Pull Off Gaza Ceasefire?

By Michael Jansen

During his ongoing visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates, US President Donald Trump seeks to focus on business opportunities and investment in the US rather than address the negative political realities to which he contributed during his first term (2017-2021).

At that time, he dismissed the two-state solution in favour of “The Deal of the Century” which would give Palestinians a degree of autonomy within Israel. He defunded UNRWA, recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the US embassy there, and said the US no longer considers Israeli settlements illegal overturning a 1978 policy. The fate of the refugees, Jerusalem, and settlers were meant to be negotiated under the two-state solution by the sides under the 1993 Oslo accord. He closed the US consulate in occupied East Jerusalem which served Palestinians and the PLO office in Washington. Trump recognized Israeli annexation of Syria’s occupied Golan.

Trump began his second term by calling for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza which would be redeveloped as a Middle East Riviera instead of exerting pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war and enable its reconstruction. Under Trump’s real estate venture Gazan Palestinians were supposed to settle in Egypt and Jordan, which along with all the Arabs flatly rejected this proposal. Egypt drew up a counterproposal to reconstruct devastated Gaza while its population stays put.

His resort scheme has angered the Arab public from the Gulf to the Atlantic. His call for Saudi Arabia to establish relations with Israel has been rejected as Riyadh has said it will normalise when there is a Palestinian state with its capital in Jerusalem.

Since Trump made Saudi Arabia his first foreign destination in 2017 during his first term, the region has changed significantly by pivoting to the East. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have cultivated ties with Russia – Riyadh’s partner on oil production and pricing – and China which buys Gulf oil and exports billions of dollars in goods to the Gulf. The Emirates, Egypt and Iran joined BRICS (the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) while Saudi Arabia applied but did not follow through. China mediated Saudi-Iranian reconciliation. This has ended Iran’s isolation in the region.

On the positive side, early in this term Trump opened talks with Iran over its nuclear programme to replace the 2015 deal from which he withdrew in 2018. A fifth round of talks is expected. Although Trump wants to be a peacemaker, he has threatened war if the talks fail.

As a peacemaker, Trump bombed Yemen heavily to force Yemen’s Houthis to end attacks on international commercial and naval vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The Houthis and US agreed to end this confrontation. Trump has not, however, halted Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks on Israel which the Houthis say will stop if Israel observes a ceasefire or ends the war on Gaza.

Trump has not planned to stop in Israel during this Gulf tour, indicating that there is some distance between him and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. He has not only refused to ceasefire in Gaza but also maintained a ten-week blockade of the strip. He could have done both to ease Trump’s swing around the Gulf where Gaza is high on the agendas of the rulers and public. Since Netanyahu has carried on with his Gaza war, Trump has ignored him when resuming talks with Iran on limiting its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions and agreeing to a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi. The ceasefire has been welcomed by Washington’s Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia which had been urging an end to US attacks on Yemen before Trump began his tour.

Without Israeli involvement, the US has also negotiated with Hamas over the release on Monday of US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander. For Trump, this is a greatly desired success in the US. In Israel, families of hostages who are not US-Israel dual citizens fear their relatives will be forgotten by Netanyahu who is determined to not only continue with the war but also to expand it once Trump departs from the region. Hostage families are not alone in their suspicions. A majority (54 per cent) of Israelis said that the war was being driven by personal rather than security reasons. Only 21 per cent agreed with Netanyahu’s prioritisation of eliminating Hamas over rescuing the hostages. A March poll showed 70 per cent of Israelis wanted Netanyahu to resign.

He has adopted this stance for several reasons. First, right-wingers in his coalition have vowed to pull out if he ends the war. Second, once the war is over, Netanyahu will be called upon to account for lax Israeli security in the south where Hamas breached the fence on October 7th, 2023, killed 1,200 Israelis and visitors and abducted another 251. There was no excuse for laxity. Young female Israeli soldiers deployed as “watchers” along that part of the border with Gaza, warned repeatedly that Hamas was conducting drills and manoeuvres ahead of an attack. Their warnings were not taken serioiusly by senior Israeli officers. Some of these women were killed and some captured. Third, as long as the war is being waged, Netanyahu will not have to explain how lightly armed Hamas fighters have managed to carry on the fight while the mighty Israeli army and air force levelled Gaza and killed 53,000 Palestinians. Netanyahu has a lot of explaining to do.

Jansen is a columnist for the Jordan Times

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Trump: The Deal-Maker in Our Midst

By Dr. Ali Bakir

US President Donald Trump begun his Middle East tour on 12 May, starting in Saudi Arabia with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, then moving on to Qatar and concluding in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Trump will be accompanied by a large delegation, including senior White House staff, several ministers, high-ranking officials, and an army of businesspeople. At the core of Trump’s tour to the influential and wealthy GCC states—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—will be investments, economic ties, business, and bilateral relationships. The Trump administration aims to attract hundreds of billions of dollars in investments from Gulf wealth funds into the United States.

Expected discussions include Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, Palestinian statehood, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and the ceasefire deal with Yemen’s Houthi group. Additionally, Syria and Lebanon may also feature on the agenda. Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa is reportedly seeking a meeting with Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to persuade him to lift sanctions and increase US involvement in Syria’s reconstruction, economy, and oil sector.

Trump critically needs this tour to project an image of a successful leader who has secured hundreds of billions of dollars in pledged investments and deals, as well as closer political and security ties with GCC states. Hundreds of agreements are anticipated during the visit, covering areas such as AI, transportation, minerals, energy, infrastructure, aviation, defense, and potentially broader agreements on semiconductors and nuclear energy.


Matter of prestige

The significance of this tour is heightened by the fact that Trump is facing both internal and external challenges, having yet to achieve any substantial victories in his ongoing struggles. These include the tariff dispute, Israeli involvement in Gaza, the Iran nuclear deal, Russia’s war in Ukraine, tensions with Canada and Greenland, and his ongoing conflict with China. An image of victory during his Gulf tour would help compensate for these setbacks. Gulf leaders are well aware of this and will arrange exceptional welcome ceremonies and generous hospitality for him. In other words, they will arrange a wonderful show for him. This not only caters to his personal ego but also enhances his standing both domestically in the US and internationally, where he is in dire need of a win. The outcome could create a win-win situation. However, it is important to note that not all the promises made during this tour will materialize. While some initiatives may come to fruition, others may remain merely part of the spectacle.

Unlike his first visit to the region during his initial term in the White House, which included Israel, Tel Aviv is notably absent from his current itinerary. This exclusion is quite significant. Under Netanyahu, Israel has little to offer the US president, aside from more problems, a negative image in the region, and a tarnished reputation for the president himself. It serves as a reminder of his failure to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, largely due to Netanyahu’s unwillingness to pursue it.

In a previous interview following Biden’s election at the end of 2020, Trump explicitly blamed Netanyahu for the failure of his peace initiative with the Palestinians, stating, “Netanyahu never wanted peace.” Amid the ongoing conflict, initiatives aimed at encouraging Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel—an objective pursued by Trump during his first term—are likely to remain on hold. Riyadh has indicated that it requires tangible progress toward a Palestinian state first, a condition that Israel has not been willing to meet. However, Reuters reported this week that the US has shifted its stance and is no longer insisting that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel as a prerequisite for advancing discussions on civil nuclear cooperation.

Desire to appear as dealmaker

Regardless, Trump’s Middle East tour represents more than just a diplomatic engagement with key US allies; it is a calculated effort to reclaim geopolitical momentum and project strength amid mounting domestic and international challenges. The emphasis on economic deals, defense cooperation, and strategic investments highlights Washington’s strategy of leveraging the Gulf’s financial and political capital to enhance Trump’s image as a dealmaker-in-chief. However, beneath the pomp lies a web of unmet expectations and unresolved conflicts.

While Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are acutely aware of Trump’s need for a symbolic win, they remain cautious about committing to politically costly moves without tangible concessions, particularly concerning Palestinian statehood. Ultimately, this trip may provide short-term optics that bolster Trump’s leadership narrative, but its long-term impact will depend on whether these engagements translate into sustained commitments or fade into the background noise of global challenges.

Dr Bakir is Assistant Professor at Qatar University, and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

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The Gaza Death Trap

While everyone waits for the full-blast war on Gaza which Israel promises to continue, Tel Aviv must know this will not be an easy matter not least of all by the Benjamin Netanyahu government whose ministers are split over allowing the army to resume its “fighting” position in Gaza.

Not everyone holds the view of extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. He wants to resume, or continue, a large scale offensive on Gaza and reoccupy the enclave forever! For these opposing ministers as well as a large number of army soldiers and officers are not in favor of going back to fighting in Gaza because (a) of the bloody situation and danger soldiers were subjected to since 7 October, 2023, and because they want the rest of the remaining hostages – 59 and about 24 still thought to be alive – to be returned.

They fear – and reflecting major sections of society who have been demonstrating daily in Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities under the of banner “bring them home,” – that increasing the wheels of war on Gaza would be signing the death warrants of the remaining hostages, originally marked at 250 and over 40 of them killed by indiscriminate Israeli bombing of the different areas of enclave over the past 17 months or so of fighting.

In the eyes of Smotrich, and he doesn’t mince his words, the return of the hostages is now secondary and what is crucial is to destroy Hamas and end its presence in the Gaza Strip.

But this is not happening. Since the resumption of the Israeli war on Gaza on 19 March, 2025 the resistance led by the Islamic organization and the other Palestinian factions have also resumed their fighting. While it is true, Hamas was slow in getting back to the war, preferring to give the ceasefire and peace talks a chance, and which led many to say the resistance are finished, this was far further from the truth.

Fighting again

Exactly one month later after 19 March, the Palestinian resistance led by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, re-started their fight against the Israeli army and the targeting of its soldiers; the Zionist army had maintained an active presence in the different areas of the Gaza Strip since the ceasefire took effect on 19 January, 2025 when the newly-elected US president was installed in the White House.

After much waiting and the gradual realization that Israel was no longer interested in the ceasefire nor in ongoing talks in Doha and Cairo, Hamas and Islamic Jihad reignited their war tactics on the Gaza battlefield. They realized Netanyahu, as prime minister of an extreme right-wing government, was no longer interested in maintaining a ceasefire.

Analysts maintained that Netanyahu was encouraged by Trump’s conflicting and dangerous stance on Gaza on top of which was the dramatic and subsequently abhorred idea of expelling the 2.1 million population of Gaza to build the Strip as the newly-plushed Middle East Riviera.

Although he quickly backed down due to Palestinian, Arab and even world pressure, Netanyahu interpreted this hugely-wrongful idea as greenlight to continue to hammer Gaza from the air and reimpose the starvation policy of its population.

Although the people got the backend of the Israeli willful mad firepower while shutting down the curtain on aid entering the 364-kilometer enclave, Hamas and the other Palestinian groups begun to regroup and re-started its military operations against the Israeli army in Biet Hanoon in the northern Gaza Strip to Gaza City in the center, Shujaiyia to the west, Khan Younis lower down and Refah, further south on the border with Egypt.

Like before, since 7 October, 2023, the resistance has now embarked on the increasing use of ambushes and booby-trap operations of luring Israeli soldiers and targeting Israeli tanks, armored vehicles and bulldozers while firing at them through locally-made, cheap but effective and deadly missiles that resulted in many of these soldiers being killed and badly-injured – numbers in the thousands – while many of the tanks and bulldozers either blown up and/or put out of action.

Towards the end of April onwards, this strategy was reactivated at full length and on different days sniping Israeli soldiers and targeting armoury would rise in multiple and different operations through the Gaza Strip. What is today of major worry to the Israeli army is that these geographical areas which were supposed to be “cleaned up” from Palestinian operatives are becoming active once again which means that for the Israeli army its back to square one.

The Israeli army had literally destroyed many of the major cities, towns, neighborhoods, villages of Gaza not once but many times. They entered places like Khan Younis, Jabalia, Shujaiyia, Nuseirat, Rafah and many more multiple times and declared them free from Palestinian resistance groups but these fighters just continue to emerge as seen recently and to the chagrin and frustration of the Israeli army.

Such frustration has led Israeli politicians like Netanyhu, and arch anti-Palestinian politicians like Itamar Ben-Gvir, Minister of National Security and hated by some Israelis for his extreme rightwing views to call for the re-occupation of Gaza, something that Netanyahu is actively contemplating. The prevailing view that once the army gets into Gaza once again, and on a mass scale, they can never leave! There are many in the army who have long rejected such an idea because they know of the “bloody situation” their soldiers would face.

However, the Israeli government and its army continues to operate under a set of illusions it is refusing to budge away from simply because Hamas and the Palestinian resistance presence is still operating in Gaza and in a robust mode to fight and kill Israeli soldiers and destroy their tanks and military hardware.

This is in addition to the fact the Israel and its army is getting nowhere near to freeing the rest of the hostages and who are likely to die if Israel embarks on a bigger war on Gaza and which Netanyahu and his extremist government are determined to do despite the warnings of the Israeli army which admits the rest of the hostages could die in any bigger military offensive.

Trump in region

Throughout this war there was always one external factor that played a permanent role in fuelling the Israeli genocide of Gaza and that was the United States through its provision of military support to Tel Aviv first under the Joe Biden administration and now under Trump.

If he could be persuaded to stop the supply of weapons to Israel, Netanyahu will finally stop the war on Gaza. Trump is on record, especially when he was running for the White House he would stop the war in Ukraine and Gaza. But will he? First of all, the Israeli lobby is entrenched in the US government.

However, there is one important factor that can pressure the Trump administration and that is the Arab countries. Trump is soon visiting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. If enough pressure can be applied from these quarters then surely the US president can move on the Gaza issue and halt any plans that Netanyahu is concocting for the enclave.

The Trump visit is being made in mid-May and its already played as a “bilateral” tour between the United States and these states whilest focusing on investment. And this is where their influence can be made with investment, economics and politics moving on one pedestal.

So the ball at the present time is in the hands of the Arab Gulf countries!

This comment is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website. 

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