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Trump’s War Drums ‘Dampen’

CrossFireArabia
February 2, 2026

EDITOR’S NOTE: This editorial is written by Abdul Bari Atwan, chief editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website, on 2 February 2026, on the eve of increasing US military presence sorrounding Iran.

The fact that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ali Khamenei appeared three times in open and public meetings, chatting to ordinary Iranians recently, sends a shocking message to US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It shows Khamenei still has the first and final word in Iran, and is not hiding in an underground bunker for fear of assassination; he has not relinquished his leadership and spiritual powers, as some Arab and Western media outlets have promoted in deliberate leaks part of the psychological warfare against Iran, coinciding with the US military buildup in the region.

In contrast top Israeli politicians and military officials are rushing to Washington fearing that President Trump will back down from his aggression threats and replace the military option for a peaceful, negotiated one and reaching an accord that does not include Israeli demands and conditions. Israeli Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir made a surprise visit to Washington recently and met with senior US military leaders, accompanied by his own top military commanders, including the Israeli Air Force Commander.

Frankly however Trump may have already lost this war, just as he lost face and credibility by failing to follow up on his threats and translate them into aggressive actions on Iranian soil as he has resorted to sending mediators, with the latest being his friend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to reopen negotiations with Iran after realizing his naval buildup and aircraft carrier deployments is not yielding results, nor are they intimidating the Iranian leadership into surrendering. Thus, he may be defeated either way, whether he goes to war or resorts to a political and diplomatic solution to the cri

The key to understanding this confusion and perhaps American retreat, and the postponement of military strikes, lies in the threatening message sent by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Trump during his meetings with the numerous Iranians on the anniversary of the late Ayatollah Khomeini’s death. The most prominent point was his assertion that “Iran does not initiate wars, but if it is subjected to aggression, it will confront it with all its might and inflict devastating blows on the enemy.” More importantly, he stated “this war will be a broad regional conflict, it will not be swift, decisive, or short-lived,” nor “clean”— meaning, free of casualties.

A “regional war” means all countries, movements, and military factions aligned with the “axis of resistance” will participate, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Ansar Allah in Yemen. American bases in the region, particularly on the Arabian side of the Gulf, will be legitimate targets, as will all the American soldiers stationed there and whose numbers exceed 70,000.

What terrifies Israel most is not only Trump’s failure to proceed with his aggression against Iran, but also the possibility of reaching an agreement that contradicts all three of Israel’s objectives:

First: Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, halting all Iranian uranium enrichment at high levels, and surrendering all its existing stockpile (480 kilograms) to a neutral country. Second: Halting the development and launch of Iranian missiles, and dismantling all long-range missiles, whether hypersonic or multiple-warhead, capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory, particularly Haifa and Tel Aviv, as demonstrated in the 12-day war last June.

Third: Completely ceasing all financial and missile support for resistance movements, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and its Iraqi counterpart, factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces such as Harakat al-Nujaba, and Ansar Allah in Yemen.

A Reminder

Everyone should be reminded the return of 5,000 American soldiers in coffins to Washington, killed by the Iraqi resistance after the 2003 invasion, forced the then-President Barack Obama to acknowledge defeat and withdraw 160,000 American troops from Iraq in November 2011. This was made to minimize losses. Thus, it is no exaggeration to say that any aggression against Iran today would result in four times that number of American casualties, if not more, in the initial days of the attack. This is due to Iran’s resolve, advanced missiles and drones, and other secret weapons that might be the biggest surprises of this war, should it start.

Perhaps the decline in oil prices, the collapse of gold and silver prices, and the dollar’s shocking depreciation in global financial markets are among the most prominent indicators confirming what was stated above: The diminishing likelihood of war, Trump’s reluctant inclination towards diplomatic solutions and negotiations, and his initial admission of his failure to achieve a military victory to avoid losses and the protracted regional war threatened by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Time will tell.

News

Houthis Launch Three-Pronged Attack on Israel

CrossFireArabia
July 17, 2025

Yemen’s Houthi group announced Wednesday it targeted Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, Eilat port and a military site in the Negev region in a series of coordinated missile and drone attacks.

“The Houthi missile force launched a ballistic missile of the Zulfiqar type at Lod Airport (Ben Gurion) in the Tel Aviv area,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a prerecorded statement.

He added that the strike forced “occupying Zionist settlers into shelters and halted airport operations.”

Saree said the group also conducted operations using drones. Two drones targeted an Israeli military site in the Negev region, while others were aimed at Ben Gurion Airport and the port of Eilat according to Anadolu.

Earlier, the Israeli army said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen, triggering air raid sirens in several southern areas. The army did not mention any drone activity in its statement.

Air raid sirens sounded across multiple towns and settlements in the Negev and Dead Sea areas, according to Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the port of Eilat will suspend operations starting Sunday due to financial distress, largely attributed to a sharp decline in revenue caused by the ongoing Houthi naval blockade in the Red Sea.

According to the report, the port has accumulated roughly 10 million shekels ($2.9 million) in debt, primarily due to unpaid municipal taxes. The network said ships that previously docked at Eilat have diverted to Ashdod and Haifa ports on the Mediterranean, citing “aggressive Houthi activity in the Red Sea.”

The Houthis have intensified missile and drone strikes on Israel since Israeli forces resumed their attacks on the Gaza Strip in March after two months of a shaky ceasefire.

Since November 2023, the group has also targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea in support of Palestinians in Gaza, where nearly 58,900 people have been killed in an Israeli onslaught.

Analyses

Iran-Israel War: Cost And Opportunities!

CrossFireArabia
June 17, 2025

By Mohammad Abu-Rumman

Benjamin Netanyahu has placed the Iranian regime, the Wilayat al-Faqih system, before a fateful challenge through a harsh pre-emptive strike. While extremely risky, the strike was not decisive enough to settle the confrontation. Netanyahu himself did not expect that an ideological-nationalist regime like Iran’s would surrender and offer immediate concessions following the strike, without launching a retaliatory blow against Israel.

Despite Iran’s unprecedented powerful strikes on Tel Aviv, the reformist current in Iran, represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has also demonstrated its continued commitment to “the negotiating table” and to finding a way out of this war. Iran has deliberately avoided using its full missile capabilities against Israel to prevent the battle from reaching the point of no return.

Current indicators suggest that this war will likely not last long, nor will it expand geographically, because the destruction costs—for both sides—are immense. For Iran, this includes damage to its oil facilities, which are the backbone of its economy, as well as the protection of what remains of its nuclear program and infrastructure. For Israel, the fact that Iran managed to breach the Iron Dome and cause major direct damage in the heart of Tel Aviv and Haifa presents a reality that Israelis cannot endure.

In this light, there will likely come a tipping point at which both parties will be willing to end the conflict. The timing of that moment will be decided by the U.S. administration, which will step in to halt the military escalation. But when will this moment arrive? It will come when both sides realise that they can no longer achieve significant additional objectives, and that the cost of continuing the conflict far outweighs the cost of stopping it, especially given that a so-called “knockout blow” is impossible in such existential wars.

On the Israeli side, there are two major areas of superiority: First, Israel’s air force has successfully destroyed much of Iran’s air defense systems, allowing it to operate freely over Tehran and strike targets at will. Second, intelligence penetration, which could lead to further surprises that may force the Iranians to retreat or make subsequent concessions. However, Israel’s major vulnerability lies in its inability to withstand sustained, large-scale missile attacks, especially after a prolonged multi-front military conflict.

As for Iran, it has two primary objectives in the current military confrontation: To preserve the political legitimacy of the Wilayat al-Faqih regime, which is built on religious ideology and propaganda. Failing to respond or retreating now would reflect poorly internally and could erode the regime’s very source of legitimacy. To protect Iran’s deterrence capacity and prevent its regional standing from deteriorating—especially after losing the bulk of its regional influence in the aftermath of “Flood of al-Aqsa” (the Gaza war).

American intervention, whether military or diplomatic, will be decisive in ending this conflict. It is evident that President Donald Trump prefers a negotiated path, aiming for political, military, and economic gains. Netanyahu, however, is betting that a major military defeat for the Iranian regime will lead not only to concessions on its nuclear program (the primary stated objective) but potentially to changing or collapsing the regime itself, thereby neutralizing it within the regional power structure. This would constitute a strategic shift in the regional security equation in Israel’s favour.

Direct US military involvement remains unlikely, except in two scenarios: If Israel were to request assistance after a massive and successful missile strike against its territory. If the U.S. concludes that Iran will not back down unless there is a more dramatic shift in the military balance of power that compels it to return to the negotiating table and offer substantial concessions.

This equation was not the same two years ago. Back then, Iran had greater geopolitical space and extensive tools of influence in the region. However, what has occurred with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s corridor (the Syrian axis), and the diminished power of Hezbollah and Hamas, has cost Iran critical advantages in the regional balance of power. After this war, there will be significant consequences even for Iran’s remaining influence in Iraq, which may become the final outpost lost by Tehran, ending a twenty-year effort (since the 2003 invasion of Iraq) to weave its intricate carpet of regional influence.

Mohammad Abu Rumman is the Academic Advisor of Politics and Society Institute in Amman and has contributed this article to The Jordan Times.

News

Iran Missiles Kill 8 Israelis, Injures 100

CrossFireArabia
June 16, 2025

Eight Israelis were killed and more than 100 injured as Iranian missiles struck central Israel in new attacks launched by Iran, Monday morning. Many of these missiles penetrated the Israeli defense systems and struck Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Israeli death toll had risen to eight after three bodies were found in Haifa.

Earlier Monday morning, the Israeli Maariv daily quoted Israeli ambulance services as saying that four people were killed in the Iranian missile attack on Israel. The ambulance service said its crews were working at four sites where the missiles fell.

Israeli media reported that the number of people injured by Iranian missiles in the greater Tel Aviv area had risen to 103.

Israel Hayom, citing eyewitnesses, reported that the extent of the destruction in greater Tel Aviv was extensive. Haaretz also reported that some of the Iranian attacks targeted Israeli military sites as well as urban infrastructure.

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported the collapse of a building directly hit by an Iranian missile in the Tel Aviv area. It said that three people are still missing at a site in Haifa, and their lives are in danger. Channel 13 also confirmed that contact with the three people missing under the rubble in Haifa remains cut off as reported in Al Jazeera.

Analyses

Al-Duwairi: The Houthis will not stop bombing Israel Unless…

CrossFireArabia
May 18, 2025

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said that if the massacres and Israeli blockade of Gaza continue, the Houthis Ansar Allah group will continue bombing deep inside Israel.

He emphasized that targeting Ben Gurion Airport in particular would lead to the cessation of air traffic and the suspension of flights by some international airlines and creating a state of confusion forcing millions to go down to the shelters.

The Israeli army announced it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen toward Israel early Sunday morning as the Houthis threatened to impose a no-fly zone on airports in Israel due to the escalation in the Gaza Strip.

Houthi military spokesman Yehya Saree announced that the group targeted Ben Gurion Airport with two ballistic missiles all the way from Yemen, a distance of over-2000 kilometers in support of Gaza.

The Houthis have since initially linked attacks on ships in the Red Sea and attacks deep inside Israel wouldn’t stop until the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip comes to an end.

Nasr al-Din Amer, deputy head of the Houthi media told Al Jazeera Net that the group’s long-range missiles aim to close down the Ben Gurion Airport and prohibit navigation there until the blockade and aggression on Gaza is lifted.

Al-Duwairi noted the Houthis’ strikes prompted the Israeli occupation to change its defense strategy. Since last week, its focus shifted from the American THAAD system to the Israeli Arrow system, as THAAD previously failed to intercept two missiles launched by the Houthis one of which landed in the surroundings of the airport.

He predicts the Israeli occupation would continue its attack on Yemen and suggests that an airstrike would be imminent in the coming days. However, he explained that the targets are unknown and would likely be civilian.

The Israeli military announced in a statement last Friday it had carried out attacks on two ports in the Al Hudaydah Governorate on Yemen’s west coast using fighter jets, targeting and destroying infrastructure it claimed belonged to the Houthis in the two ports.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened: “We know the Houthis are merely an arm, and that Iran is behind them and provides them with support, instructions, and authorization.” He warned the Houthis would pay a heavy price, and “we will defend ourselves by all means to preserve Israel’s security,” as reported in Al Jazeera.