Iran Targets Israel, Ignores Trump’s Surrender Call

Iranian missiles have continued to fell on Israeli areas, Tuesday/Wednesday according to the Israeli media which also reported that the projectiles fell after the Israeli defenses failed to intercept them.

This failure caused fires and much damages including to a building after two missile salvos from Iran of approximately 30 missiles in less than an hour on Israel.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRG) announced in the attack it used hypersonic ballistic missiles for the first time. Observers say this is a clear message to US President Donald Trump, to steer away from entering the war despite his calls for Iran to surrender unconditionally.

At 00:35 local time (GMT+3), the Israeli military said in a statement: “Alerts were activated in several areas within the country after missiles were identified being launched from Iran towards Israeli territory,” as reported by Anadolu.

The Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported air raid sirens blasted in the greater Tel Aviv area, Haifa, and Jerusalem, because of the eighth Iranian missile barrage since Tuesday morning.

Loud explosions in Jerusalem were held as a result of the interception of Iranian missiles according to the Turkish news agency.

On the other hand, Israel’s Channel 12 reported it estimated Iran fired 20 missiles at Israel in that barrage and as grudgingly confirmed by the Israeli  Army Radio.

This is while Israel Hayom reported that at least two missiles fell in Jerusalem and the Sharon region near Tel Aviv and with the Hebrew media also reporting of the damages caused in central Israel.

It added that missile fragments fell on a building in the northern region, while several fires broke out in open areas as a result of the fall of Iranian missiles or their fragments.

Air raid sirens

Air raid sirens sounded in central Israel, including in the Greater Tel Aviv, Ashdod, Rishon LeZion, and Netanya, following the detection of new missile launches from Iran. This is the ninth barrage since Tuesday morning with at least 10 rockets toward Israel and resulted in mass fires that engulfed at least 20 vehicles in central Israel.

The extensive fires were reported and dealt with Israeli fighters despite the strict news blackout the Israeli government is imposing and especially when reports are made on military bases and other installations.

Iran Fateh Rockets

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the first-generation hypersonic Fatah ballistic missiles are being used for the first time and wants to send a clear message to Israel and the USA,that Iran is willing to go the full away despite the extensive Israeli attacks on the country.  

“The powerful and highly maneuverable Fatah missiles repeatedly shook the shelters of the cowardly Zionists this evening after penetrating their defensive shield,” an IRG statement conveyed.

“Tonight’s missile attack proved that we have established complete control over the skies of the occupied territories, and that their residents are now defenseless against Iranian missile attacks,” it added.

According to Army Technology, a leading global website specializing in analyzing and documenting information related to defense industries and military technologies, the Fateh missile is one of the most advanced weapons in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s arsenal, thanks to its hypersonic speed.

The missile has a range of approximately 1,400 kilometers and features a movable nozzle and an advanced guidance system, allowing it to adjust its trajectory during flight and perform precise maneuvers both inside and outside the atmosphere, including lateral and rotational movements.

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Iran-Israel War: Cost And Opportunities!

By Mohammad Abu-Rumman

Benjamin Netanyahu has placed the Iranian regime, the Wilayat al-Faqih system, before a fateful challenge through a harsh pre-emptive strike. While extremely risky, the strike was not decisive enough to settle the confrontation. Netanyahu himself did not expect that an ideological-nationalist regime like Iran’s would surrender and offer immediate concessions following the strike, without launching a retaliatory blow against Israel.

Despite Iran’s unprecedented powerful strikes on Tel Aviv, the reformist current in Iran, represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has also demonstrated its continued commitment to “the negotiating table” and to finding a way out of this war. Iran has deliberately avoided using its full missile capabilities against Israel to prevent the battle from reaching the point of no return.

Current indicators suggest that this war will likely not last long, nor will it expand geographically, because the destruction costs—for both sides—are immense. For Iran, this includes damage to its oil facilities, which are the backbone of its economy, as well as the protection of what remains of its nuclear program and infrastructure. For Israel, the fact that Iran managed to breach the Iron Dome and cause major direct damage in the heart of Tel Aviv and Haifa presents a reality that Israelis cannot endure.

In this light, there will likely come a tipping point at which both parties will be willing to end the conflict. The timing of that moment will be decided by the U.S. administration, which will step in to halt the military escalation. But when will this moment arrive? It will come when both sides realise that they can no longer achieve significant additional objectives, and that the cost of continuing the conflict far outweighs the cost of stopping it, especially given that a so-called “knockout blow” is impossible in such existential wars.

On the Israeli side, there are two major areas of superiority: First, Israel’s air force has successfully destroyed much of Iran’s air defense systems, allowing it to operate freely over Tehran and strike targets at will. Second, intelligence penetration, which could lead to further surprises that may force the Iranians to retreat or make subsequent concessions. However, Israel’s major vulnerability lies in its inability to withstand sustained, large-scale missile attacks, especially after a prolonged multi-front military conflict.

As for Iran, it has two primary objectives in the current military confrontation: To preserve the political legitimacy of the Wilayat al-Faqih regime, which is built on religious ideology and propaganda. Failing to respond or retreating now would reflect poorly internally and could erode the regime’s very source of legitimacy. To protect Iran’s deterrence capacity and prevent its regional standing from deteriorating—especially after losing the bulk of its regional influence in the aftermath of “Flood of al-Aqsa” (the Gaza war).

American intervention, whether military or diplomatic, will be decisive in ending this conflict. It is evident that President Donald Trump prefers a negotiated path, aiming for political, military, and economic gains. Netanyahu, however, is betting that a major military defeat for the Iranian regime will lead not only to concessions on its nuclear program (the primary stated objective) but potentially to changing or collapsing the regime itself, thereby neutralizing it within the regional power structure. This would constitute a strategic shift in the regional security equation in Israel’s favour.

Direct US military involvement remains unlikely, except in two scenarios: If Israel were to request assistance after a massive and successful missile strike against its territory. If the U.S. concludes that Iran will not back down unless there is a more dramatic shift in the military balance of power that compels it to return to the negotiating table and offer substantial concessions.

This equation was not the same two years ago. Back then, Iran had greater geopolitical space and extensive tools of influence in the region. However, what has occurred with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s corridor (the Syrian axis), and the diminished power of Hezbollah and Hamas, has cost Iran critical advantages in the regional balance of power. After this war, there will be significant consequences even for Iran’s remaining influence in Iraq, which may become the final outpost lost by Tehran, ending a twenty-year effort (since the 2003 invasion of Iraq) to weave its intricate carpet of regional influence.

Mohammad Abu Rumman is the Academic Advisor of Politics and Society Institute in Amman and has contributed this article to The Jordan Times.

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The Devil You Know!

By Dr Khairi Janbek

One wonders what more can be said about the tragic war in Gaza, more than the outpouring of words in the East, West and the Arab world with the habitual accusations and counter-accusations which have reduced the question of Gaza, after many other things to a mere question of semantics with the same words and same policies, while the habitual loser, the hostages and their families, and the Gazan people continue to suffer relentlessly.

Delegations keep going and coming, ceasefires agreed then broken given the impression that all what is being attempted is to keep the war going without the pangs of guilty conscience or more pragmatically, pending how public opinion shifts in western countries.

For all intents and purposes, can Israel destroy Hamas or at least break its military structure, if indeed this is the intention of Israel? If it is not, what would be the point of this war?

This is because all of what is being done is mere destruction of lives of innocent civilians who have no say when it came to “Hamas terrorism” and the subsequent Israeli retaliation. The tragi-comedy of the situation, is that Israel is fighting Hamas in order to keep a smaller version of Hamas, in the manner possibly of the devil you know is better than the one you don’t.

As for the other side of the divide, one doesn’t believe that Hamas cares about the innocent Gazans more than Israel, of course their aim is to survive, and rule for another day, because as it appears they seem to believe that Israel has no wish to occupy Gaza, and they stand a good chance to rule a diminished territory compatible with their diminished organizational size.

One wouldn’t actually be surprised knowing only too well than in the Middle East nothing is meant to be resolved; neither with peace nor with war.

Then comes the international community, President Trump’s policy towards the region fits very well with all what is going on, and it reflects this inconsistency with its own inconsistency. At one point, he wants the destruction of Hamas, then he wants a ceasefire and wants the war to stop, with the only logical demand of wanting what everyone else wants, the release of the hostages.

But even on this path one wonders for how long he will be able to keep his attention span on the question. The EU has its twists and turns, apart from’Ireland and Spain, the governments of Europe have their own contradictions with each other and subject to the fluctuations of public opinion, nevertheless, there will be plenty of rhetoric but the same policies will continue.

Ironically, the only side which is not counted on, and the only side which seems reluctant to get involved actively, save for holding hostage release negotiations, is the Arab side.

One firmly believes, against common wisdom, that only the Arabs can convince Hamas to surrender its weapons, and manage a post-Hamas Gaza, guaranteeing security for Israel and start the reconstruction efforts for Gaza. It is only after that, a permanent solution can be thought of.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France.

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Why Doesn’t Trump Want Netanyahu to Strike Iran?

By Dr Marwan Asmar

CROSSFIREARABIA – United States president Donald Trump seems to be a very happy man these days. He says he is about to reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear file very soon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the other hand is particularly worried, concerned, frustrated and even downhearted. He says ‘we need to strike Iran now before it’s too late and it goes ahead and develops a nuclear bomb’. 

But, and on the contrary, Trump believes that it’s because Iran is still at a weak stage before reaching nuclear  weapons capability, the US can force a deal that would make sure it checks its nuclear arsenal and would submit to the American will.

To prove his point, Trump through his US negotiating team led by Steve Witkoff, is continually talking to the Iranian team through Oman, now in their fifth mediating session about ironing out a new deal that would satisfy the US point of view and give the Iranians peace of mind and something to look forward to like lifting sanctions on the country.

To that extent, and no doubt for public relations, Trump is never short these days on complementing the Iranians with his glowing uttrances on the country and how it can become “great” again.

By their own accord however, both teams who are talking indirectly through the Omanis, say that negotiations is tough and may even going through a rough patch.

The Iranian delegates are sticking to their position, they want a deal but not at any price. They want to continue to pursue their uranium enrichment program believing this is a question of state and national sovereignty. They say they haven’t reached such a local, indegenous breakthrough in order to give it, whilst praising their scentific and technological advancements in this area of power.

The Americans on the other hand insist that Iranian divest itself from this nuclear process for uranium enrichment is a ‘redline’ as it leads to the possession of a nuclear weapon. To the Trump administration, this point is intractable which Iran has to give up on. 

But if this is the case why is the US continuing to talk to Iran? Further still, why should Trump be happy and talk about an impending deal that would lock the hands of the Iranians? Clearly, the American president is happy despite the murky regional waters.

Back to Israel. Netanyahu is deeply worried and wants to frustrate any impending nuclear deal. But he was always frustrated about Iran and argued, well, at least for the last 10 years, against talking to Iran and placating it. It was argued he was the person to convince Trump to leave the international JCPA treaty signed between the five-members of the UN Security Council and Iran in 2018.

Today however, and for Netanyahu, its “horrors” on the horizons. Leaked newspaper reports in The New York Times suggest there is deep tension between Trump and Netanyahu on this issue for the US president doesn’t want the later to embark on any action such as military strikes that would jeopardize any upcoming deal.

That is why Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad Chief David Barnea are being invited to Washington to the White House to impress upon them not to embark on a drastic Israeli action and bomb Iranian military and nuclear sites whilst negotiations are going on.

Many US and European experts however are fearful that Netanyahu wouldn’t be able to be controlled and if he embarks on striking Iran he would do so without consulting the Americans and go it alone and in spite of the ‘talked-about” pressure that is being exercised by the White House on Tel Aviv.

Regardless however, Trump wants a deal come what may for he believes this would be a great achievement for America and would vindicate his earlier action when he got the US out of the deal in 2018 and now in return for a better accord, and moving his own view to create a safer world and enforce his image that he is a man of peace and doesn’t support world wars like his recent attempt to stop the Ukraine War.

If Israel does strike Iran, in theory that would make Trump very unhappy because it would mean the United States is no longer able to control its strategic ally, or it could mean that behind the international and regional diplomatic chit-chat, the US is not too bothered about striking Iran.

But there are also other problems to consider: Wouldn’t a strike on Iran, especially on its nuclear sites, produce a spiral and a slippery-slope in which the latter would surely retaliate and be capable of doing so, with vehement force.

Apart from what that would do to the region, ie, “nuclear catastrophe”, would Netanyahu go along that road and risk annihilation for Israel and its surrounding areas.

These are tough questions to consider and may force Netanyahu to back down and listen to the US.

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Hamas, Trump and The Ceasefire

By Dr Marwan Asmar

CROSSFIREARABIA – The USA wants a ceasefire on Gaza, yet it maintains its supplies of weapons to Israel which the latter uses to beat Palestinians with. This was the case with the former Joe Biden administration.

However, it is the Donald Trump administration that is now in the front brokerage seat, talking, and for the first time, to Hamas directly, face-to-face about ending the genocidal, destructive Israeli war on Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu is downright angry about this fact, yet he is making sure that he doesn’t upset Trump by his extremist utterances despite the fact that he is on record for wanting to continue the deadly war on the civilians of Gaza under the pretext of destroying Hamas and its military wing.

However, it has been clear, and at least for the past month that direct negotiations between US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and his team including Adam Boehler have been taking place with top members of Hamas despite the fact that Israel has stepped up its war on Gaza with its mass killing of its starving 2.2 million-population.

The recent breakthrough achieved by the two sides, Monday, is awaiting final approval by the Israeli government which is sending out mixed signals of agreements and discord. However, there is circulating news that Netanyahu is finally ready.

The new deal agreed upon with the American team is that Hamas would agree on a 60-day-ceasefire where the Islamic movement would free 10 alive and dead prisoners (five of each) on the first day of the deal and 10 (also alive and dead) at the end of 60 days.

The American-sponsored deal includes the lifting of the Israeli siege on Gaza and allowing the entry of 100 aid trucks per day to enter the territory. Meanwhile Witkoff says that during those 60 days talks would continue to negotiate a ceasefire on a permanent basis.

However, Israel is still mulling on the fact because it says the ceasefire negotiations originally agreed on with Witkoff last January are different than what the present US-Hamas is talking about. The Israeli side, mainly Netanyahu, states that they want Hamas out of Gaza but first of all they must lay-down their arms and stashed weapons. Finally, the Gaza Strip must be a free area from any weapons.

These are intractable issues although Hamas and directly talking with the Americans, has previously stated it would entertain the idea of Gaza being run by an independent committee. Such flexibility may be one indication why the American administration is talking to Hamas officials and which is unprecedented as no US government, including Trump in his first presidential term, talked to an organization that is on their “terrorist list”.

The latest breakthrough to achieve a ceasefire on Israel’s war on Gaza, relaunched on 19 March maybe seen as another hope-to-be-dashed as in previous long-talks in Cairo and Doha turned out to nothing and were no more than “talking shops” with the Israelis, especially Netanyahu unwilling to end the war on Gaza, and not least of all of what was regarded as weak US president in the form of Joe Biden and his Middle East roving Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

All this appear to be changing now for Trump wants to end all global wars and doesn’t want to pay American money around the globe as in the case with Biden and his support for Ukraine where billions of dollars were spent. He has already stopped the war with the Houthis after “massacring” the country for a little more than a month and costing the American treasury around a $1 billion.

The American president is talking to Iran on a new nuclear deal and is now talking to Hamas with a real possibility of achieving a deal to end the war and allow UN aid trucks to feed the hungry of Gaza who are once again dying of Israeli-imposed starvation.

To prove his point on wanting to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump sacked his National Security Advisor Mike Waltz for talking to Netanyahu behind his back last April when delicate talks was being pursued between Trump administration officials and Hamas.

Tide turns

The tide is turning against Israel. As well as less endearing developments in the White House against Israel, many countries around the world, including states in the European Union like Britain, France, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Norway, Sweden and many more are today calling for the stopping of the war on Gaza with many openly saying they would support the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

This is something which is making Israel’s government extremely jittery. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sar is today, adopting a threatening attitude. He says if these countries take this step Israel would declare its sovereignty on many areas of the occupied West Bank.

All this, together with the latest negotiations, may finally persuade Israel to accept a deal rather than hold out and be prepared to be called an international pariah. Regardless however, many say that international pressure must be maintained from Trump in the United States as well as Europeans and the EU Union.

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