Analyses Archives - Page 6 of 31

Can Trump Impose His Plan on Gaza?

CrossFireArabia
September 29, 2025

Leaks continue to emerge from Washington about the vision of the US administration and President Trump for the next phase in Gaza. From the so-called “Riviera” plan floated months ago, the discussion has now shifted to a proposal for a new governing structure: an “International Transitional Authority” that would oversee Gaza for no less than five years. If granted a UN mandate, this body would become the supreme political and legal authority in the Strip.

This is not the first time such ideas have surfaced. Throughout the past year, many debates revolved around possible frameworks for Gaza, including new local councils or administrative bodies—always with a firm insistence on excluding the Palestinian Authority’s return. But the latest leak appears more realistic than turning Gaza into a real estate project. It now points to a future shaped by new Palestinian technocrats, operating under international oversight, with figures close to Arab decision-making circles such as former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair being floated as possible players. The plan also shows more detail and coherence than previous notions, echoing elements from earlier UN initiatives, especially the principle of rejecting forced displacement or mass expulsion of Palestinians—something Netanyahu has openly opposed.

It is only natural that such ideas are presented not just as trial balloons but as potential answers to an intractable dilemma. The notion of internationalizing Gaza was laid out earlier, following the failure to stop the war and the inability to craft a viable local compromise. Any solution today is being imported from outside, yet still built on immovable foundations: stripping Gaza of weapons and removing Hamas from the Strip. This means we remain far from implementation. Demanding the release of all hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, and its full withdrawal reduces the problem to its simplest form, while in reality, the crisis is still at its peak, not at the stage of post-war arrangements.

The Arab role, increasingly visible in recent months, could prove decisive in shaping any solution. Gulf states, in particular, have stepped up their influence over the Trump administration’s regional outlook. This was evident in their opposition to annexation plans for the West Bank, which Trump raised in talks with Arab leaders. Israel, however, has already taken steps on the ground and shows no sign of reversing them. US pressure, therefore, is focused less on halting annexation altogether and more on blocking its formal declaration. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar even clarified that the debate is not about annexing Palestinian-owned land, but about applying Israeli law to settlements in Area C, signalling a plan to consolidate control without directly clashing with Trump.

Against this backdrop, Netanyahu used his speech at the UN to stress that the war is far from over. While showcasing Israel’s achievements against Iran and its allies, he reaffirmed his concept of the “seven fronts war,” insisting the threat is ongoing and escalation remains possible. This message was clearly aimed at Trump, but Netanyahu also sought to tap into Trump’s interest in a peace legacy, hinting at possible peace with Syria and Lebanon. Still, he tied this to guarantees for minority rights—particularly for the Druze—framing concessions within security needs while keeping escalation elsewhere on the table.

All of this suggests that the region, from now until the coming anniversary of October 7, will remain open to potential flare-ups. Israel’s government, under pressure to deliver even symbolic victories, will continue to play both cards of potential peace and the threat of ongoing confrontation as the second anniversary of the October 7 attack approaches.

The author is a columnist for the Jordan Times

Analyses

Yemeni Drone Lands on Eilat Hotel, Injures 22

CrossFireArabia
September 25, 2025

In a dramatic move of events, a Houthi drone landed in the courtyard of an Israeli hotel in Eilat, Wednesday afternoon, to the surprise of a sleepy, touristic city with sharp bangs and explosions.

The drone sending blast waves and injuring 22 people three of which were critical as reported by the Israeli media, is creating an atmosphere of alarm and fear. This latest hit is seen as a first for incoming drones to Israel.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/2293088777795227

The blast, a rarity in itself, because most of these drones and ballistic missiles that travel more than 2000 kilometers from Yemen to Israel, are shot down in mid-air. Up till recently these drones were seen as a bit of nuisance for the Israeli army.

But not this one. The latest strike is seen as a wake up call to Tel Aviv particularly as it is the third to come in two weeks with the Houthis managing to target the Ramon Airport twice – and damaging its departure lounge. The airport has become Israel’s next major international airport next to Eilat and regularly brings in European tourists.

Also, the latest strike is an upkeep of a Houthi promise that these projectiles will not stop as long as the Israeli war on Gaza continues – now coming up to the end of its second year and killed over 65,000 people – and it has been good on its word as recognized by the Israeli media.

The fact that the drone landed outside a touristic hotel and injured over 22 people shows that Houthis are a formidable force and no amount of action will stop them. This is while the latest targeting is seen as a major escalation and source of concern, because now, civilians are being involved with casualties rammed up.

Since 7 October 2023, the Israeli military, through airborne planes bombed Yemen cities a total of 16 times but to no avail. This is in spite of the fact that Israeli planes bombed ports, oil facilities, electrical grids with the last bombing killing the Houthi prime minister and the government in late August 2025.

But the Houthis have not relented nor they plan to. From last July onwards they targeted Israel, including Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv, Haifa and Eilat almost every other day. As well. Since 19 October 2023 when the targetting started in support of the people of Gaza, the Houthis fired hundreds of drones, missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel and which the latter have been unable to stop them.

In a bid to downplay the extent of the fallout, the Israeli government kept saying the incoming projectiles were/are negligible. However, such an assessment ignored the fact it created chaos in the Ben Gurion Airport and disrupted air traffic control while diverting planes from Tel Aviv to other destinations.

This is not to say anything about the fact the sirens boomed in every town and settlement from Tel Aviv, south to occupied Jerusalem sending millions of Israelis to underground shelters and creating many disruptions to the daily lives of people.

The latest direct targeting on an Eilat hotel may be seen as an embarrassment to the Israeli defences, including its billion-dollar Iron Dome and other military paraphernalia for they misfired and were unable to shoot-down the “uneffective drone” from the air.

Military experts say the reason why they were not able to track the drone and shoot it down was related to the fact that the Yemen projectile flew at a low altitude and thus was able to reach its target. The Iron Dome and similar defences are designed to deal with incoming high altitude ballistic missiles. In this case, two very expensive – millions of dollars – counter-missiles were fired at the incoming drone but missed, thus causing the extensive damages and injuries on the ground not to say anything to the pride of Israeli military superiority.

Analyses

Israel’s Mideast Message

CrossFireArabia
September 11, 2025

By Dr Maisa Al Masri

“This is a message to the entire Middle East,” Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana said in response to the Israeli airstrike that targeted Hamas leaders in the heart of the Qatari capital, Doha.

However, this statement is not merely a comment on the military operation strike into a declared strategic message, telling the entire region, and primarily the Gulf, that Israel, in partnership with Washington, has become the master of the decision-making process in the region.

Ohana’s statement is an explicit and direct threat that leaves no room for interpretation, reflecting the new deterrence doctrine adopted by Tel Aviv: No red lines, no geographical immunities, and no Western allies outside the confines of Israeli dictates. Simply put, anyone who disagrees with us becomes a legitimate target, even if they are in the heart of a friendly capital that hosts the largest American military base.

This makes for a dangerous conclusion: Israel no longer views the Gulf states as partners in stability, but rather as “open arenas for fiery messages.” Washington is blessing the silence, participating in complicity, and mocking the Arabs.

Naked dominance

And don’t forget the Israeli crime in the heart of the Gulf marks the beginning of a new era of naked dominance. It’s not a traditional security operation, but a pivotal turning point in the rules of regional engagement, in which Qatar has been embarrassed both on the Arab level and internationally.

Israel has now publicly placed itself in a circle (no longer concealing its intentions) – through bombing and military strikes – that it no longer sees a distinction between political geography and the theater of operations. More dangerously, the heart of the Gulf today has become openly subject to Tel Aviv’s fire. And who can challenge it?

The strike wasn’t an intelligence leak or a silent targeting, but a direct airstrike in an area teeming with embassies, schools, and residential buildings, in a country that is a major ally of Washington and a pillar of American security in the Middle East.

Thus the message has become clear to everyone: No one is above attack… no state, no sovereignty, no partnership.

The US administration, led by Donald Trump, evaded with a series of conflicting statements about its prior knowledge of the operation. But whether it knew and blessed it, knew and remained silent, knew too late, or did not know at all, the outcome is the same: The American cover was removed, Gulf confidence eroded, and billions perished. The statements of the US embassy in Doha did not go beyond expressions of caution to American citizens, while White House statements swayed between “regret over the location” to “understanding the goal of eliminating terrorism.”

I believe the opposite message was conveyed to the Gulf capitals: Your security is not a priority, and your sovereignty does not equate to a clear position from Washington. The question that now arises however is: Why Qatar? Why now? Why was the strike carried out in Qatar and not in Turkey, or Iran for example? This is despite the fact that the Hamas leaders that were targeted had just returned from Istanbul, suggesting Tel Aviv chose the location not arbitrarily but with deep political awareness. Tel Aviv did not pull the trigger in Istanbul, even though the targeted leaders passed through it only hours earlier.

Turkey, with all its military, political, and international complexity, is not a testing ground for Israeli madness. There are red lines that even Tel Aviv dares not cross… and Turkey is one of them. The potential Turkish military response, the internal Turkish explosion during a highly sensitive election season, and the delicate balance of power within NATO rendered Turkish territory “operationally closed” even to the most violent wings of Israeli decision-making. But when the targeted figures left Istanbul for Doha, everything changed.

Qatar, like other threatened Arab states, in the Israeli security and intelligence mindset, is merely an intermediate gray area, neither neutral nor classified as an “enemy,” potentially a shocking target at a low cost. This is something all Arab decision-makers should be aware of.

From Tel Aviv’s perspective, Qatar is balancing contradictory roles, managing mediation, funding aid, and hosting parties that anger Israel without possessing a genuine deterrent umbrella. There are no international calculations that could prevent a surgical strike carried out within hours. Merely hosting an American base does not make Doha “immune,” but may even further tempt Tel Aviv, proving that decision-making in the region is no longer solely in Washington’s hands but in Tel Aviv as well.

In short, Israel needed a platform to send the biggest message since the Gaza war… so it chose the weakest link, amid the silence of its strongest ally.

Here, we can pause a moment at the Knesset member’s statement that the operation was “a message to the Middle East.” This is not a slip of the tongue, but a strategic doctrine upon which future decisions are based. Israel is telling all countries in the region that whoever harbors Hamas, or even engages in dialogue with it, will be next.

If the Arab states fail to take a firm political stand, the Doha precedent will be repeated elsewhere. It may not be Hamas’s mediation that stands accuse but rather the concepts of neutrality, balance, and even dialogue with parties Tel Aviv disapproves of and which then could become sufficient justification for a strike. It’s a policy of punishment.

This scene is posing existential questions for Arab capitals. If Qatar, Washington’s most important ally, is being bombed over the heads of its own people, after Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza… should we wait for Iraq’s turn? Riyadh? Abu Dhabi? Kuwait? And others? Does the American umbrella truly protect us, or is it used only when our interests intersect with Israel’s?

And what is the point of hosting American bases if they do not prevent airspace violations? Or provide protection?

What happened in Doha is pushing the region to crossroads: Either continuing its position of dependency and timid mediation, or repositioning strategically and developing independent air defenses, which is logistically difficult, or seeking alternative alliances (Ankara, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran?), and establishing red lines that Tel Aviv will not cross.

Qatar now faces difficult choices: Will it withdraw from the Hamas mediation? Will it demand real security guarantees? Will it go further, toward symbolic deterrence or unconventional partnerships? Or will it pay the price of protection once again?

Beware: A war of wills is beginning now. The Israeli airstrike in Doha was not just a blow to Hamas, but also a slap in the face to the sovereignty of the Gulf and the region, an undermining of the prestige of international law and its signed, ratified, and binding agreements, and an insult to the concept of the alleged strategic partnership with America.

This is the beginning of a new era, one in which Israel and Washington declare that the security of the region is no longer an Arab decision. The question now is: Will the Arabs as a whole wake up before “Ohana’s message” reaches other capitals? Perhaps.

The author is a political writer based in Amman Jordan and contributed this article to the Al Rai Alyoum Arabic website

Analyses

Is The West Turning Against Israel?

CrossFireArabia
September 3, 2025

By Dr Ramzi Baroud

Is it finally happening? Is the West turning against Israel? Or are we, whether motivated by hope or driven by despair, simply engaging in wishful thinking? The matter is not so simple.

Last July, a significant number of countries and organizations signed the ‘New York Declaration,’ a strong statement that followed a high-level meeting titled, “Conference on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine.”

The conference itself and its bold conclusion warrant a deeper conversation. What matters for now, however, is the identity of the countries involved. Aside from states that have traditionally advocated for international justice and law in Palestine, many of the signatories were countries that had previously supported Israel regardless of context or circumstance.

These mostly Western countries included Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, among others. Some of these nations are also expected to formally recognize the state of Palestine in September.

Of course, one has no illusions about the hypocrisy of supporting peace in Palestine while still arming the Israeli war machine that is carrying out a genocide in Gaza. That notwithstanding, the political change is too significant to ignore.

In the case of Ireland, Norway, Spain, Luxembourg, Malta, and Portugal, among others, one can explain the growing rift with Israel and the championing of Palestinian rights based on historical evidence. Indeed, most of these countries have historically teetered on the edge between the Western common denominator and a more humanistic approach to the Palestinian struggle. This shift had already begun years prior to the ongoing Israeli genocide.

But what is one to make of the positions of Australia and the Netherlands, two of the most adamantly pro-Israel governments anywhere?

In Australia’s case, media accounts argue that the friction began when the federal government denied an Israeli extremist lawmaker, Simcha Rothman, a visa for a speaking tour.

Israel quickly retaliated by ending visas for three Australian diplomats in occupied Palestine. This Israeli step was not just a mere tit-for-tat response but the start of a virulent campaign by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wage a diplomatic war against Australia.

“History will remember Albanese for what he is: a weak politician who betrayed Israel and abandoned Australia’s Jews,” Netanyahu said, again infusing the same logic of lies and manipulation tactics.

Israel’s anger was not directly related to Rothman’s visa. The latter was a mere opportunity for Netanyahu to respond to Australia’s signature on the New York Declaration, its decision to recognize Palestine, and its growing criticism of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

Though Albanese did not engage Netanyahu directly, his Home Affairs Minister, Tony Burke, did. He answered the accusations of weakness by boldly arguing that “strength is not measured by how many people you can blow up.”

This statement is both true and self-indicting, not only for Australia but for other Western governments. For years, and numerous times during the genocide, Australian leaders have argued that “Israel has the right to defend itself.” Since blowing people up hardly qualifies as self-defense, it follows that Canberra had known all along that Israel’s war is but an ongoing episode of war crimes. So, why the sudden, though still unconvincing, shift in position?

The answer to this question is directly related to the mass mobilization in Australia. On a single Sunday in August, hundreds of thousands of Australians took to the streets in what organizers described as the largest pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the country’s history. Marches were held in more than 40 cities and towns, including a massive rally in Sydney that drew a crowd of up to 300,000 people and brought the city’s Harbour Bridge to a standstill. These protests, which called for sanctions and an end to Australia’s arms trade with Israel, demonstrated the immense public pressure on the government.

In other words, it is the Australian people who have truly spoken, courageously standing up to Netanyahu and to their own government’s refusal to take any meaningful step to hold Israel accountable. If anyone should be congratulated on their strength and resolve, it would be the millions of Australians who relentlessly continue to rally for peace, justice, and an end to the genocide in Gaza.

Similarly, the political crisis in the Netherlands, starting with the resignation of Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp on August 22, 2025, is indicative of the unusually significant change in European politics toward Israel and Palestine.

“The Israeli government’s actions violate international treaties. A line must be drawn,” said Eddy van Hijum, the leader of the country’s New Social Contract Party and deputy prime minister.

The “line” was indeed drawn, and quickly so when Veldkamp resigned, ushering in mass resignations by other key ministers in the government. The idea of a major political crisis in the Netherlands sparked by Israeli war crimes in Palestine would have been unthinkable in the past.

The political shift in the Netherlands, much like in Australia, would not have happened without the massive public mobilization around the Gaza genocide that continues to grow worldwide. While pro-Palestine protests have occurred in the past, they have never before achieved the critical mass needed to compel governments to act.

Though these governmental actions remain timid and reluctant, the momentum is undeniable. People’s power is proving more than capable of swaying some governments to impose sanctions and sever diplomatic ties with Israel, not only through pressure in the streets but also through pressure at the ballot box.

While the West has not yet fully turned against Israel, it may only be a matter of time. The precious blood of hundreds of thousands of innocent Palestinians in Gaza deserves for history to be finally altered. The children of Palestine deserve this global awakening of conscience.

Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His forthcoming book, ‘Before the Flood,’ will be published by Seven Stories Press. His other books include ‘Our Vision for Liberation’, ‘My Father was a Freedom Fighter’ and ‘The Last Earth’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). He contributed this article to the Jordan Times.

Analyses

Worst Day For The Israeli Army. Why?

CrossFireArabia
August 30, 2025

By Dr Marwan Asmar

As the Israeli army attempts to enter and control Gaza City, it is receiving constant and horrendous shocks from the Palestinian resistance groups after 23 months of fighting. It is sobering for Israeli soldiers as four simultaneous ambushes were carried out against in an area of eight kilometers supposedly flattened by American-supplied mass bombs.

The latest carried Tuesday night by Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters is sending shockwaves in Israel and among its army because of the intensity of the clashes and firepower where it is reported that Israeli tanks and armed carriers were blown up in face-to-face fighting with machine guns and other explosives.

The toll is still being counted but Hamas are promising this is just the beginning.

On the Israeli side at least one soldier was killed, 11 others injured and four soldiers missing. They are feared to be taken hostages by Hamas although the Israeli army wouldn’t confirm this with latest reports that them may have reestablished contact. But this is yet to be verified.

Many media outlets, primarily Israeli, are speculating the Israeli army may have activated its Hannibal Directive and killed at least one its soldier rather than allowing him to be taken alive by resistance fighters.

The latest clashes, carried out in Al Zaytun and Sabra neighborhoods, on the southern outskirts of Gaza City is being described by the Israeli media as another 7 October when 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 hostages were taken by Hamas fighters back to Gaza City.

This description is setting additional shockwaves among Israeli society and fear that the remaining hostages in Gaza, dubbed at least 20 will not come out alive, nor the 30 killed will not be handed back.

The latest ambushes are suggesting as well Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups are still in their top fighting form despite the repeated utterings by Israeli Prime Minister that his army is “cleaning up” the areas of Gaza from these fighters and in spite of the fact that most of the enclave has been turned into rubble with more than 63,000 killed by the Israeli war machine.

While Israel controls 75 percent of the Israeli army, they are yet to enter Gaza City. The latest incursion into the Al Zaytun neighborhood is number seven. Their previous incursions, totaling six have ended in failure. As a result of the latest ambushes, Israeli soldiers have withdrew yet again further south to the Natzarim Crossing which they now control and effectively split Gaza into two halves.

The Battle for Gaza City is still in its early stages however and Israel is in for more surprises. The Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir who is already deeply dismayed about attempting to control Gaza City because of insurmountable logistical reasons and powerful armed Palestinian groups, is sure to be greatly worried from the latest ambushes.

He has already warned the Netanyahu that Israel could lose 100 soldiers in the battle which is yet to start to control Gaza City and prefers a political solution. But this is not in the offing or an option for the political leaders who insist that the military plod on regardless of their safety and security.

By western estimations, the Palestinian resistance groups – mainly Hamas and Islamic Jihad – continue to have anything between 25,0000 to 50,0000 fighters and will likely maintain their maintain their momentum and keep emerging from underground tunnels. Experts have said this is indeed a miracle for many of these tunnels, including the one under Al Zaytun, are still intact and continue to replenish the resistance.

At the moment many of the Palestinian fighters, including from leftist factions like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine have relocated and the Zaytun Battalion has rebuilt itself which the Israeli army claimed it destroyed in the previous 22 months. The scorching ambushes that occurred recently, and whose Israel is keeping a tight censorship lip about the actual number of its deaths and injured, are just the beginning and there is likely to be more in the coming days.

Zamir is well aware of the tough fight that lies ahead and that is why his is claiming to be following a strategy of moving slowly and “surely”. But judging from the latest fight this strategy is failing before it gets off-the-ground as the decision to enter the formidable was taken two weeks ago.